Will USC Blink? Part 3

Good day folks, today we are going to talk about the lines, Offense and Defense, LB's, and the TE's.

First, let's look at the match ups between USC Offense and Oregon's Defense.

	LT	LG	C	RG	RT
USC	Charles Brown	Jeff Byers	Kristofer O'Dowd	Alex Parsons	Tyron Smith
	DE	DT	DT	DE
Oregon	Will Tukuafu	Brandon Biar	Blake Ferras	Kenny Row

To begin with, three of the five USC OL are seniors, the other two being a sophomore and junior. Average weight for this line is is 292.  The offensive line has allowed only 9 sacks all year for an average of 1.92 per game, 5 total since starting Pac-10 play.  Additionally, O'Dowd is not 100 percent and Carroll on O'Dowd, "...he wasn't playing poorly, he just wasn't playing at his best".  This may be a small chink in their armor.


On the other side of the ball, the Oregon D has two seniors (the others are now playing in the NFL).  The average weight for this group is 263.  This line has accounted for 11.5 sacks for an average of 1.64 per game just for the front four.

So what's all this hog stuff mean Verne?


It means I almost want to give a slight advantage to USC, however I think the two match up very well.  Jeff Tedford, coach at Cal has mentioned that the two lines for both Oregon and USC do in fact match up very well.  

Something to consider is that Oregon's last opponent was the Huskies and their OL averages 295.4 and the Oregon front four still got 3 sacks.  In addition, they were playing a very similar defense which they will face with the Trojans as Nick Holt was just last year the Trojans DC.  So while the Trojans front five have more experience and are heavier, I think the Oregon front four have more "motor", ala Nick Reed.

Now let's look at the Oregon OL and the USC DL.

	LT	LG	C	RG	RT
Oregon	Bo Thran	Carson York	Jordan Holmes	Mark Asper	CE Kaiser
	DE	NT	DT	DE
USC	Wes Horton	Jurrell Casey	Armond Armstead	Everson Griffen

USC's front four comprises of a junior, two sophomores, and a freshman.  The front four average 281 pounds and have recorded 10.5 sacks for an average of 1.5 sacks per game.  On the other side of the ball, the Oregon OL averages 295.2 pounds and allowed 11 sacks.  However, Oregon all allowed only 5 sacks since starting Pac-10 play.


I would give a slight advantage to USC on this one, however that advantage is so slight that I have a hard time giving any advantage at all.

What does all this knuckle dragging mean Verne?  

It means absent everything else, the hogs in the trenches match up very well on both sides of the ball for both teams.  I think who wins in the trenches will be the team who wants it the most.

Now let's look at the Tight Ends, Anthony McCoy (6-5, 250, Sr) with backup Rhett Ellison (6-5, 255, So) for USC.  Then we have Ed Dickson (6-5, 243, Sr) with backup David Paulson (6-4,233,So) for the Ducks.  USC has utilized their TE's with 402 yards receiving and 2 yards rushing.  Oregon has utilized their TE's with 504 yards receiving none on rushing.

While McCoy and Ellison are very capable TE's and they have yards nearly comparable with the team of Dickson and Paulson, I think that the skill level of the Dickson/Paulson duo is just a little bit better - yes I know that is subjective, but I've watched both teams all season and it's just that it seems the Dickson/Paulson duo catch more clutch passes than the McCoy/Ellison duo do. 


I would have to give a stronger advantage to Oregon on this one.

I have mentioned in each of my last two posts that a score of Oregon 28 - USC 19 was a fair prediction and at this point I would only change the Oregon score to 29 as Chip Kelly tends to like to go for two on his first TD - especially if the first TD is a gift as in a blocked punt or something.

I wasn't going to do the LB's today, but it works out better because I intend to finish out tomorrow and then Saturday I'll look at all the predictions from around the country.

The LB's look like this:

	Sam	Mike	Will
USC	Michael Morgan	Chris Galippo	Malcolm Smith
	Sam	Mike	Will
Oregon	Eddie Pleasant	Casey Matthews	Spencer Paysinger

For USC, the trio looks like this, Michael Morgan (6-4, 220, Jr), Chris Galippo (6-2, 250, So), and Malcolm Smith (6-1,225, Jr) a young group that have accounted for 5 sacks, 19 tackles for a loss of 54 yards, and 1 int.  On the other side, Oregon's trio of Eddie Pleasant (5-11, 211, So), Casey Matthews (6-2, 235, Jr), and Spencer Paysinger (6-3, 226, Jr) have accounted for 3.5 sacks, 11 tackles for a loss of 39 yards, and 2 ints.

These are a tale of two different philosophies.  USC's LB's are in the Offense's backfield a lot and their run defensive stats reflect that.  Oregon's LB's are in the Defense's backfield a lot and their defensive pass efficiency reflect that as well.  Let's take a closer look at those stats.

	Rushing O	Rushing D	Pass O	Pass D
USC	198.29	79.86	242.14	108.06
Oregon	210.71	118.46	157.43	92.76

This is where the LB's philosophies come into play.  Because USC's LB's spend so much time in the offenses backfield, their rushing D is only 80 yards per game, while Oregon's LB's spend more time in their own backfield and they get a pass eff of 92.76.  Again a tale of two teams.

Does either of them have the advantage?  Well, maybe.  If Oregon comes out passing, they will probably have the advantage there.  On the other hand if USC decides to utilize their thunder and lightening, they will probably have the advantage.  I say this considering that the run game is not USC's forte and the passing game is not Oregon's forte.  On the other hand, I think both teams can and will adjust considering the strengths of each other's LB's.  

So what's all that LB stuff mean Verne?


I've often said the LB's can change the course of any game with their play or lack thereof.  If USC comes out and relies on the pass, they may get a lot of yards, but few points.  If Oregon comes out and depends on the run, they also may get a lot of yards, however, with Masoli at QB, they actually may get lots of points too.


So today, I am going to go with a prediction of Oregon 29 - USC 19.

Tomorrow I will be comparing the Receivers to the DB's.