I know, I know it's only Monday, but after the shellacking we put on UW, can you blame me? I am still waiting for the media guide to come out from the U, but in the mean time I have some numbers to crunch.
Tidbits:
Oregon is PF 161 PA 38 in the conference.
USC is PF 112 PA 61 in the conference.
This means that Oregon is averaging 40.25 points per game and is giving up 9.5 points per game. USC thusly is scoring 28 points per game and is giving up 15.25 points per game.
So, theoretically, if the numbers remained true and we average the differences between what Oregon averages in points verses what USC gives up, that would be 27.75. If we do the same for USC then they should score 18.75 or in other words:
Oregon 28
USC 19
That is not an unreasonable prediction, however there are many more factors one has to consider before making the "ultimate" prediction.
There is one sobering stat that needs to be addressed. USC is 10-6-1 at Autzen. However, since 1998, USC is only 2-4.
Ducks | Trojans | |
2007 | 24 | 17 |
2005 | 13 | 45 |
2002 | 33 | 44 |
2001 | 24 | 22 |
1999 | 33 | 30 |
1998 | 17 | 13 |
Troubling has been that when the Ducks lost, they lost big and when they won, they just did win. However, this 2009 Oregon team is different and I personally think the Ducks are a much better than even the 2007 or 2001 teams. The offense from the 2007 team was better at this point, but the D wasn't even close.
Just looking at the points between Oregon and USC by quarter, by half, and total we get:
Quarter | 1st | 2nd | Half | 3rd | 4th | Half | Total |
Oregon | 48 | 72 | 120 | 88 | 30 | 118 | 238 |
USC | 61 | 61 | 122 | 45 | 53 | 98 | 220 |
Notice that the first half in nearly dead even, however the second half is clearly owned by Oregon. The major difference is that in the 4th quarter, USC has had to score while Oregon generally cruised. The most glaring difference is that in the second and third quarters, Oregon has scored 160 points to USC's 106.
My thinking is that part of the reason for those 1st quarter slow starts is not unlike two heavy weights sizing each other out, the difference is that in the second quarter, Oregon seems to really begin to figure it's opponents out and after the half, there is nearly no comparison.
Finally for today, on a national average:
Average | Pass D | Pass O | Rush D | Rush O |
Oregon | 6 | 108 | 41 | 14 |
USC | 25 | 40 | 5 | 19 |
So this really is beginning to look like a matchup between Oregon's Passing D verses USC's Passing O and USC's Rushing D verses Oregon's Rushing O.
The point of concern is that USC's rushing O is nearly as good as Oregon's and that may give the Trojans that extra dimension that may be lacking in Oregon. If on the other hand, you look at the last four games that Masoli has played in and the Pass O for Oregon suddenly becomes a factor. While Oregon may not pass for a ton of yards, what yards they do pass for seem to count in more important situations.
For example, in the two opponent that both Oregon and USC have faced with Masoli and Barkley at the helm, the numbers are thus:
Masoli | Pass | % | Yards | Ints |
Cal | 21-25 | 84% | 253 | 0 |
WSU | 14-18 | 78% | 116 | 0 |
Totals | 35-43 | 81% | 369 | 0 |
Barkley | Pass | % | Yards | Ints |
Cal | 20-35 | 57% | 283 | 1 |
WSU | 13-22 | 59% | 247 | 0 |
Totals | 33-57 | 58% | 530 | 0 |
The glaring differences are the percentage of completion and to a lesser degree the Int. One reason Barkley's aren't as good as Masoli is simply experience. However, if you look at the games Barkley has played in since just the Cal game, he has 3 more Int's and his completions for ND and OSU are 34-54 or 63 percent. Granted 63 percent is better than 58 percent, but it is offset by the 3 int's. In six games, Masoli has only 2 ints.
But Int's by themselves are not the whole story, we have to look at the Int's verses the number of passes attempted. Masoli has 2 Int's for 129 attempts or a 1.5% Int ratio, Barkley has 5 Int's for 161 attempts or a 3.1% Int ratio which is twice as many as Masoli while only having 32 more pass attempts. The more telling is that in the last two games - assumedly after more experience, Barkley threw more Int's than he did in the previous four games in which he played in.
In the nest parts, we'll explore more of the Offenses verses the Defenses, Chip Kelly verses Pete Carroll, and more numbers.
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