Will USC Blink? Part 2

Today we'll look at the key match ups between USC and Oregon.  We will look at the QB, TE, OL, DL, LB, DB, and special teams positions, today we'll just look at the QB's and RB's.


We'll start with the QB's Matt Barkely and Jeremiah Masoli.  Since I've already covered their common opponents, now I'll look at them as a season.  


Note: All information is taken from the Trojans and Ducks weekly releases for this game.


Overall comparison:

Matt Barkley	GP	Rating	Attps	Comps	Int's	PCT	Yards	TD's	Avg Yds/GM
	6	148.73	161	97	5	60.2	1540	7	256.7
Jeremiah Masoli
	6	129.09	129	78	2	60.5	905	5	150.8

On first blush, it would look like Barkley has the better stats, however there are two "equalizers".  The first being the Percentage of completions and the interceptions.  The pct is nearly identical, however there is a "growing" problem for Barkley and his ints.  Barkley has over a hundred yards per game more than Masoli and his rating reflects that.


If we look at the QB's trends, we get the following (Attempts-Completions-Intercepts (A-C-I) and Yards/TD's with current team NCAA Total Defense Ranking):

	A-C-I	Yds/TDs	A-C-I	Yds/TDs	A-C-I	Yds/TDs
	SJS		tOSU		WSU
Matt Barkley	19-15-0	233/1	31-15-1	195/0	22-13-0	247/2
Team D Ranking	114		13		119
	A-C-I	Yds/TDs	A-C-I	Yds/TDs	A-C-I	Yds/TDs
	Cal		ND		OSU
	32-20-1	283/0	29-19-1	380/2	25-15-2	202/2
	83		97		81
	A-C-I	Yds/TDs	A-C-I	Yds/TDs	A-C-I	Yds/TDs
	BSU		Purdue		Utah
Jeremiah Masoli	27-14-1	121/0	21-11-0	163/0	16-4-1	95/0
Team D Ranking	12		68		23
	A-C-I	Yds/TDs	A-C-I	Yds/TDs	A-C-I	Yds/TDs
	Cal		WSU		UW
	25-21-0	253/3	18-14-0	116/1	22-14-0	157/1
	83		119		107

Let's analyze this just a little.  When Barkley plays anyone with a hint of a defense (see tOSU), he has his worst days.  USC has faced teams with an average NCAA Total Defense ranking of 84.5.  Barkley had the same number of completions at tOSU, San Jose State and Oregon State.  Barkley's completions percentages are not really impressive when faced with a decent Defense (tOSU less than 50% and when face with Oregon state, only 60% the next best defense).  Normally I would attribute that to experience, but there isn't an upward trend here, he's all over the board, so I can only surmise that his experience is just not there yet.


Now on the Jeremiah Masoli.  Masoli has faced teams with an average NCAA Total Defense ranking of 68.7, which is almost 20 rankings lower than USC.  Masoli's two worst games were against top 25 defenses where his completion percentages were 52% at BSU and 25% against Utah.


What does all this mean Verne?  

Only that USC passes far more than Oregon, but it appears the numbers to be equal.  The difference here, I think, is that Masoli is more mature and they play in Autzen.  Thusly I would give the advantage to Masoli.  If they were in LA, the advantage would probably switch.


Now lets look at the Running Backs.  For USC I will be using their two top RB's McKnight and Bradford and for Oregon, also their two top running backs, James and Masoli.  Note: I will also touch on the other running backs in each squads stables to even out yards per game.

USC	Att	Gain	Loss	Net	Avg	TD	YPG
McKnight	97	634	17	617	6.4	7	88.1
Bradford	51	386	11	375	7.4	4	53.6
Team	255	1496	108	1388	5.4	18	198.3
Oregon	Att	Gain	Loss	Net	Avg	TD	YPG
James	107	757	22	735	6.9	6	105
Masoli	59	370	98	272	4.6	7	45.3
Team	303	1690	215	1475	4.9	19	210.7

On the face of it, they the top two look pretty good for each team.  USC's top two are averaging 141.7 yards per game with an average per touch of 6.9.  Oregon's top two are getting 150.3 per game with an average per touch of 5.8.  There difference here is that a lot of Masoli's touches are less than five yards, but into the end zone and while everyone else in the above table have played 7 games, Masoli has only played 6.


So, just looking at the Quarterbacks and Running Backs, Oregon and USC match up very well in statistics the difference again being that Oregon has faced teams with better defenses than what USC has faced on average.  

In my earlier post, I mentioned a possible score of Oregon 28 - USC 19 and that is beginning to look more and more realistic..

I will look at more positions tomorrow, more particularly the OL and the DL.