USC v Oregon - Predictions from around the country

I don't use Bleacher Report because everybody and their brother predicts something and it's just too much to try and keep up.

Site	Oregon	USC	Notes:
Rob Mosley – Register Guard	29	27
ESPN Insider	23	28
AccuScore	52%	47%
ESPN Ted Miller	27	24
CFN Fearless Predictions	27	33
CFN Sport Picks	2	4	Number of staff picking Oregon vs Opponent
Sporting News Picks	2	4	Number of staff picking Oregon vs Opponent
Sporting News Picks – Jim Gilstrap	34	31
Sporting News Picks – Matt Hayes	24	27
Sporting News Picks – Steve Greenburg	30	31
Sporting News Picks – Brian McLaughlin	24	21
Sporting News Picks – Dave Curtis	23	28
Sporting News Picks – Derek Samson	21	24
College Football News DG on PX	24	31
CBS Sport Picks	4	1	Number of staff picking Oregon vs Opponent
NBC Sports	26	24
USA Today	20	28
Jon Wilner – Mercury News	Pick		No Score
Sports Ilustrated	30	27
Bud Withers – Seattle Times	20	26
Phil Steele	20	27
Alabama.com	27	30
GatorSports.com	28	21

Currently it's pretty close those picks:


Picks
Oregon 10
USC 13

Will USC Blink? Part 4

Our next to final installment and we'll be comparing the receivers and the DB's.  Tomorrow we'll take a look around the nation and what the experts are predicting.  I've taken the top five receivers for each team and then I'll have totals as a team.  The breakdown is, name, vitals and the stats are catches-yards-td's.

USC	Damian Williams	Stanley Havili	Joe McKnight	David Ausberry	Brice Butler
	6-1, 195, Jr	6-1, 230, Jr	6-0, 190, Jr	6-4, 235, Jr	6-3, 200, Fr
	34-525-3	14-207-0	12-101-0	10-106-0	8-130-1
OREGON	Ed Dickson	Jeff Maehl	DJ Davis	David Paulson	Jamere Holland
	6-5,243, Sr	6-1,175, Jr	6-1, 205, Jr	6-4,233, So	6-1, 188. Jr
	27-362-4	21-252-1	10-114-1	9-142-0	7-105-0

It is interesting to note that in USC's case two of the top five are running backs, which might indicate that they have no other short receivers.  It is my understanding that McCoy is out so I have not included him in this breakdown.  USC has 1,695 yards receiving with 8 TDs (with McCoy), while Oregon has 1102 yards with 6 TD's.  While Oregon doesn't have as many yards as USC, they are very close in TD's.  

The breakdown of TD's is that USC has scored 18 TD's rushing and 8 receiving, whereas Oregon has scored 19 rushing to 6 receiving.

What does all this mean Verne?

It means that USC's Williams gets the lion's share of the catches with 34, with everyone else taking up 42 catches between 4 players.  It also means the Oregon's receivers are more tandum in that Dickson and Maehl are near the same in number of catches but like USC they drop off from there, but not as much as USC.  Dickson and Maehl account for 48 catches while the other three have only 26.
Part of that is simply because of the make up of the two teams.  Both teams have excellent receivers and while I don't at the moment have any stats for yards after the catch, it would appear that the bottom four for USC, while having much fewer catches have either 10 yards per catch or nearly so.  The same could be said about the bottom three for Oregon and in fact their per catch seems to be a little better.
Advantage here seems nil, though I would think that if the conditions are right both Williams and Dickson may have a big day.


Now, let's look at the DB's and for a lot of reasons, this is the core of both USC and Oregon's defense.  This is the same set up as with the receivers and the bottom stats are Tackles-Sacks-Int's.

	CB	FS	SS	CB
USC	Kevin Thomas	Taylor Mays	Will Harris	Josh Pinkard
	6-1, 190, Sr	6-3, 235, Sr	6-1, 210, Sr	6-1, 215, Sr
	31-1-0	49-0-1	28-2-0	24-1-1
	LCB	FS	Rover	RCB
OREGON	Anthony Gildon	John Boyett	Javes Lewis	T Jackson III
	6-1, 175, So	5-10,190, Fr	6-1, 185, So	5-10,182, Jr
	5-0-0	43-0-2	44-0-1	26-1.5-2

With the following backups which are vitally important:

	CB	FS	SS	CB
USC	TJ Bryant	D. McAllister
	6-0, 180, So	6-1, 195, So
	14-.5-0	13-0-0
	LCB	FS	Rover
OREGON	Cliff Harris	TJ Ward	Marvin Johnson
	5-11,160, Fr	5-11,208,Sr	5-11.200,Jr
	6-0-1	16-1-0	10-0-0

As one can easily see, the DB's here account for the vast majority of the D for each team.  Interestingly, USC's DB's have 5.5 sacks among them while Oregon's DB's only have 2.5.  This is very much in keeping with what the LB's do for USC, they like being in the offense's backfield, where as they only have 2 ints.  Oregon likes to be in their own backfield, thus they have fewer sacks but they have 6 ints.

What does all this mean Verne?

What it means is that in the passing game, Oregon's DB's look to be better than USC's while in the run game, USC's DB's look to be better.  However, the problem with crowding the line or blitzing with a spread offense is that the DB's have further to run to get to the QB and that gives the QB (in this case Masoli), enough time to burn the D.

On the other hand, if Oregon's front four and LB's don't stop the run, there is a lot of daylight between the LB's and the DB's for them to make some big gains.

The bottom line here is who wins in the trenches.  I am of the thought that the trench war will completely dictate the outcome of this game.  I also don't see a high scoring game, but then I'm being a little pessimistic too.

All week I've been playing around with Oregon 29 - USC 19 and today I think I am going to stick with that.  If the Ducks get the first TD, Chip Kelly will go for two.  The way I see the game is this:

	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Total
USC	3	10	3	3	19
OREGON	0	10	10	9	29

Tomorrow I will post a listing of what all predictions I can find and then it will be GAME ON!

Till then, be safe.



NOTE:  Fixed score.

Will USC Blink? Part 3

Good day folks, today we are going to talk about the lines, Offense and Defense, LB's, and the TE's.

First, let's look at the match ups between USC Offense and Oregon's Defense.

	LT	LG	C	RG	RT
USC	Charles Brown	Jeff Byers	Kristofer O'Dowd	Alex Parsons	Tyron Smith
	DE	DT	DT	DE
Oregon	Will Tukuafu	Brandon Biar	Blake Ferras	Kenny Row

To begin with, three of the five USC OL are seniors, the other two being a sophomore and junior. Average weight for this line is is 292.  The offensive line has allowed only 9 sacks all year for an average of 1.92 per game, 5 total since starting Pac-10 play.  Additionally, O'Dowd is not 100 percent and Carroll on O'Dowd, "...he wasn't playing poorly, he just wasn't playing at his best".  This may be a small chink in their armor.


On the other side of the ball, the Oregon D has two seniors (the others are now playing in the NFL).  The average weight for this group is 263.  This line has accounted for 11.5 sacks for an average of 1.64 per game just for the front four.

So what's all this hog stuff mean Verne?


It means I almost want to give a slight advantage to USC, however I think the two match up very well.  Jeff Tedford, coach at Cal has mentioned that the two lines for both Oregon and USC do in fact match up very well.  

Something to consider is that Oregon's last opponent was the Huskies and their OL averages 295.4 and the Oregon front four still got 3 sacks.  In addition, they were playing a very similar defense which they will face with the Trojans as Nick Holt was just last year the Trojans DC.  So while the Trojans front five have more experience and are heavier, I think the Oregon front four have more "motor", ala Nick Reed.

Now let's look at the Oregon OL and the USC DL.

	LT	LG	C	RG	RT
Oregon	Bo Thran	Carson York	Jordan Holmes	Mark Asper	CE Kaiser
	DE	NT	DT	DE
USC	Wes Horton	Jurrell Casey	Armond Armstead	Everson Griffen

USC's front four comprises of a junior, two sophomores, and a freshman.  The front four average 281 pounds and have recorded 10.5 sacks for an average of 1.5 sacks per game.  On the other side of the ball, the Oregon OL averages 295.2 pounds and allowed 11 sacks.  However, Oregon all allowed only 5 sacks since starting Pac-10 play.


I would give a slight advantage to USC on this one, however that advantage is so slight that I have a hard time giving any advantage at all.

What does all this knuckle dragging mean Verne?  

It means absent everything else, the hogs in the trenches match up very well on both sides of the ball for both teams.  I think who wins in the trenches will be the team who wants it the most.

Now let's look at the Tight Ends, Anthony McCoy (6-5, 250, Sr) with backup Rhett Ellison (6-5, 255, So) for USC.  Then we have Ed Dickson (6-5, 243, Sr) with backup David Paulson (6-4,233,So) for the Ducks.  USC has utilized their TE's with 402 yards receiving and 2 yards rushing.  Oregon has utilized their TE's with 504 yards receiving none on rushing.

While McCoy and Ellison are very capable TE's and they have yards nearly comparable with the team of Dickson and Paulson, I think that the skill level of the Dickson/Paulson duo is just a little bit better - yes I know that is subjective, but I've watched both teams all season and it's just that it seems the Dickson/Paulson duo catch more clutch passes than the McCoy/Ellison duo do. 


I would have to give a stronger advantage to Oregon on this one.

I have mentioned in each of my last two posts that a score of Oregon 28 - USC 19 was a fair prediction and at this point I would only change the Oregon score to 29 as Chip Kelly tends to like to go for two on his first TD - especially if the first TD is a gift as in a blocked punt or something.

I wasn't going to do the LB's today, but it works out better because I intend to finish out tomorrow and then Saturday I'll look at all the predictions from around the country.

The LB's look like this:

	Sam	Mike	Will
USC	Michael Morgan	Chris Galippo	Malcolm Smith
	Sam	Mike	Will
Oregon	Eddie Pleasant	Casey Matthews	Spencer Paysinger

For USC, the trio looks like this, Michael Morgan (6-4, 220, Jr), Chris Galippo (6-2, 250, So), and Malcolm Smith (6-1,225, Jr) a young group that have accounted for 5 sacks, 19 tackles for a loss of 54 yards, and 1 int.  On the other side, Oregon's trio of Eddie Pleasant (5-11, 211, So), Casey Matthews (6-2, 235, Jr), and Spencer Paysinger (6-3, 226, Jr) have accounted for 3.5 sacks, 11 tackles for a loss of 39 yards, and 2 ints.

These are a tale of two different philosophies.  USC's LB's are in the Offense's backfield a lot and their run defensive stats reflect that.  Oregon's LB's are in the Defense's backfield a lot and their defensive pass efficiency reflect that as well.  Let's take a closer look at those stats.

	Rushing O	Rushing D	Pass O	Pass D
USC	198.29	79.86	242.14	108.06
Oregon	210.71	118.46	157.43	92.76

This is where the LB's philosophies come into play.  Because USC's LB's spend so much time in the offenses backfield, their rushing D is only 80 yards per game, while Oregon's LB's spend more time in their own backfield and they get a pass eff of 92.76.  Again a tale of two teams.

Does either of them have the advantage?  Well, maybe.  If Oregon comes out passing, they will probably have the advantage there.  On the other hand if USC decides to utilize their thunder and lightening, they will probably have the advantage.  I say this considering that the run game is not USC's forte and the passing game is not Oregon's forte.  On the other hand, I think both teams can and will adjust considering the strengths of each other's LB's.  

So what's all that LB stuff mean Verne?


I've often said the LB's can change the course of any game with their play or lack thereof.  If USC comes out and relies on the pass, they may get a lot of yards, but few points.  If Oregon comes out and depends on the run, they also may get a lot of yards, however, with Masoli at QB, they actually may get lots of points too.


So today, I am going to go with a prediction of Oregon 29 - USC 19.

Tomorrow I will be comparing the Receivers to the DB's.

Will USC Blink? Part 2

Today we'll look at the key match ups between USC and Oregon.  We will look at the QB, TE, OL, DL, LB, DB, and special teams positions, today we'll just look at the QB's and RB's.


We'll start with the QB's Matt Barkely and Jeremiah Masoli.  Since I've already covered their common opponents, now I'll look at them as a season.  


Note: All information is taken from the Trojans and Ducks weekly releases for this game.


Overall comparison:

Matt Barkley	GP	Rating	Attps	Comps	Int's	PCT	Yards	TD's	Avg Yds/GM
	6	148.73	161	97	5	60.2	1540	7	256.7
Jeremiah Masoli
	6	129.09	129	78	2	60.5	905	5	150.8

On first blush, it would look like Barkley has the better stats, however there are two "equalizers".  The first being the Percentage of completions and the interceptions.  The pct is nearly identical, however there is a "growing" problem for Barkley and his ints.  Barkley has over a hundred yards per game more than Masoli and his rating reflects that.


If we look at the QB's trends, we get the following (Attempts-Completions-Intercepts (A-C-I) and Yards/TD's with current team NCAA Total Defense Ranking):

	A-C-I	Yds/TDs	A-C-I	Yds/TDs	A-C-I	Yds/TDs
	SJS		tOSU		WSU
Matt Barkley	19-15-0	233/1	31-15-1	195/0	22-13-0	247/2
Team D Ranking	114		13		119
	A-C-I	Yds/TDs	A-C-I	Yds/TDs	A-C-I	Yds/TDs
	Cal		ND		OSU
	32-20-1	283/0	29-19-1	380/2	25-15-2	202/2
	83		97		81
	A-C-I	Yds/TDs	A-C-I	Yds/TDs	A-C-I	Yds/TDs
	BSU		Purdue		Utah
Jeremiah Masoli	27-14-1	121/0	21-11-0	163/0	16-4-1	95/0
Team D Ranking	12		68		23
	A-C-I	Yds/TDs	A-C-I	Yds/TDs	A-C-I	Yds/TDs
	Cal		WSU		UW
	25-21-0	253/3	18-14-0	116/1	22-14-0	157/1
	83		119		107

Let's analyze this just a little.  When Barkley plays anyone with a hint of a defense (see tOSU), he has his worst days.  USC has faced teams with an average NCAA Total Defense ranking of 84.5.  Barkley had the same number of completions at tOSU, San Jose State and Oregon State.  Barkley's completions percentages are not really impressive when faced with a decent Defense (tOSU less than 50% and when face with Oregon state, only 60% the next best defense).  Normally I would attribute that to experience, but there isn't an upward trend here, he's all over the board, so I can only surmise that his experience is just not there yet.


Now on the Jeremiah Masoli.  Masoli has faced teams with an average NCAA Total Defense ranking of 68.7, which is almost 20 rankings lower than USC.  Masoli's two worst games were against top 25 defenses where his completion percentages were 52% at BSU and 25% against Utah.


What does all this mean Verne?  

Only that USC passes far more than Oregon, but it appears the numbers to be equal.  The difference here, I think, is that Masoli is more mature and they play in Autzen.  Thusly I would give the advantage to Masoli.  If they were in LA, the advantage would probably switch.


Now lets look at the Running Backs.  For USC I will be using their two top RB's McKnight and Bradford and for Oregon, also their two top running backs, James and Masoli.  Note: I will also touch on the other running backs in each squads stables to even out yards per game.

USC	Att	Gain	Loss	Net	Avg	TD	YPG
McKnight	97	634	17	617	6.4	7	88.1
Bradford	51	386	11	375	7.4	4	53.6
Team	255	1496	108	1388	5.4	18	198.3
Oregon	Att	Gain	Loss	Net	Avg	TD	YPG
James	107	757	22	735	6.9	6	105
Masoli	59	370	98	272	4.6	7	45.3
Team	303	1690	215	1475	4.9	19	210.7

On the face of it, they the top two look pretty good for each team.  USC's top two are averaging 141.7 yards per game with an average per touch of 6.9.  Oregon's top two are getting 150.3 per game with an average per touch of 5.8.  There difference here is that a lot of Masoli's touches are less than five yards, but into the end zone and while everyone else in the above table have played 7 games, Masoli has only played 6.


So, just looking at the Quarterbacks and Running Backs, Oregon and USC match up very well in statistics the difference again being that Oregon has faced teams with better defenses than what USC has faced on average.  

In my earlier post, I mentioned a possible score of Oregon 28 - USC 19 and that is beginning to look more and more realistic..

I will look at more positions tomorrow, more particularly the OL and the DL.

Will USC Blink? Part 1

This is the first of a series on the upcoming game:  USC vs Oregon, October 31st, 5:00 pm Pacific and Arizona time.


I know, I know it's only Monday, but after the shellacking we put on UW, can you blame me?  I am still waiting for the media guide to come out from the U, but in the mean time I have some numbers to crunch.


Tidbits:


Oregon is PF 161 PA 38 in the conference.
USC is PF 112 PA 61 in the conference.


This means that Oregon is averaging 40.25 points per game and is giving up 9.5 points per game.  USC thusly is scoring 28 points per game and is giving up 15.25 points per game.


So, theoretically, if the numbers remained true and we average the differences between what Oregon averages in points verses what USC gives up, that would be 27.75.  If we do the same for USC then they should score 18.75 or in other words:


Oregon 28
USC 19


That is not an unreasonable prediction, however there are many more factors one has to consider before making the "ultimate" prediction.


There is one sobering stat that needs to be addressed.  USC is 10-6-1 at Autzen.  However, since 1998, USC is only 2-4.

	Ducks	Trojans
2007	24	17
2005	13	45
2002	33	44
2001	24	22
1999	33	30
1998	17	13

Troubling has been that when the Ducks lost, they lost big and when they won, they just did win.  However, this 2009 Oregon team is different and I personally think the Ducks are a much better than even the 2007 or 2001 teams.  The offense from the 2007 team was better at this point, but the D wasn't even close.


Just looking at the points between Oregon and USC by quarter, by half, and total we get:

Quarter	1st	2nd	Half	3rd	4th	Half	Total
Oregon	48	72	120	88	30	118	238
USC	61	61	122	45	53	98	220

Notice that the first half in nearly dead even, however the second half is clearly owned by Oregon.  The major difference is that in the 4th quarter, USC has had to score while Oregon generally cruised.  The most glaring difference is that in the second and third quarters, Oregon has scored 160 points to USC's 106.


My thinking is that part of the reason for those 1st quarter slow starts is not unlike two heavy weights sizing each other out, the difference is that in the second quarter, Oregon seems to really begin to figure it's opponents out and after the half, there is nearly no comparison.


Finally for today, on a national average:

Average	Pass D	Pass O	Rush D	Rush O
Oregon	6	108	41	14
USC	25	40	5	19

So this really is beginning to look like a matchup between Oregon's Passing D verses USC's Passing O and USC's Rushing D verses Oregon's Rushing O.


The point of concern is that USC's rushing O is nearly as good as Oregon's and that may give the Trojans that extra dimension that may be lacking in Oregon.  If on the other hand, you look at the last four games that Masoli has played in and the Pass O for Oregon suddenly becomes a factor.  While Oregon may not pass for a ton of yards, what yards they do pass for seem to count in more important situations.


For example, in the two opponent that both Oregon and USC have faced with Masoli and Barkley at the helm, the numbers are thus:

Masoli	Pass	%	Yards	Ints
Cal	21-25	84%	253	0
WSU	14-18	78%	116	0
Totals	35-43	81%	369	0
Barkley	Pass	%	Yards	Ints
Cal	20-35	57%	283	1
WSU	13-22	59%	247	0
Totals	33-57	58%	530	0

The glaring differences are the percentage of completion and to a lesser degree the Int.  One reason Barkley's aren't as good as Masoli is simply experience.  However, if you look at the games Barkley has played in since just the Cal game, he has 3 more Int's and his completions for ND and OSU are 34-54 or 63 percent.  Granted 63 percent is better than 58 percent, but it is offset by the 3 int's.  In six games, Masoli has only 2 ints.  


But Int's by themselves are not the whole story, we have to look at the Int's verses the number of passes attempted.  Masoli has 2 Int's for 129 attempts or a 1.5% Int ratio, Barkley has 5 Int's for 161 attempts or a 3.1% Int ratio which is twice as many as Masoli while only having 32 more pass attempts.  The more telling is that in the last two games - assumedly after more experience, Barkley threw more Int's than he did in the previous four games in which he played in.


In the nest parts, we'll explore more of the Offenses verses the Defenses, Chip Kelly verses Pete Carroll, and more numbers.