Oregon v Ohio State - A Tale of Two Stories - Part 7 - Schedules

Today, lets breakdown the schedules for both teams, it may prove enlightening.

Ohio State
09/05/09	NAVY	31 - 27	W
09/12/09	USC	15 - 18	L
09/19/09	@ Toledo ^	38 - 0	W
09/26/09	ILLINOIS	30 - 0	W
10/03/09	@ Indiana *	33 - 14	W
10/10/09	WISCONSIN	31 - 13	W
10/17/09	@ Purdue	18 - 26	L
10/24/09	MINNESOTA	38 - 7	W
10/31/09	NEW MEXICO ST.	45 - 0	W
11/07/09	@ Penn St.	24 - 7	W
11/14/09	IOWA	27 - 24	W OT
11/21/09	@ Michigan	21 - 10	W
Oregon
09/03/09	@ Boise St. *	8-19	L
09/12/09	PURDUE *	38 - 36	W
09/19/09	UTAH	31 - 24	W
09/26/09	CALIFORNIA	42 - 3	W
10/03/09	WASHINGTON ST.	52 - 6	W
10/10/09	@ UCLA	24 - 10	W
10/24/09	@ Washington	43 - 19	W
10/31/09	USC	47 - 20	W
11/07/09	@ Stanford	42 - 51	L
11/14/09	ARIZONA ST.	44 - 21	W
11/21/09	@ Arizona	44 - 41	W 2OT
12/03/09	OREGON ST. *	37 - 33	W

Now that we see what each team did, lets look at how each opponent ended up (Note, I would have preferred to use the rankings as each team faced them, but apparently tOSU fans have a problem with that, so I'll use the end of season results):

				Overall	Overall
Oregon				O Ranking	D Ranking
09/03/09	@ No. 14 Boise State	0-1 (0-0)	L 19-8	8	13
09/12/09	Purdue	1-1 (0-0)	W 38-36	53	68
09/19/09	No. 18 Utah	2-1 (0-0)	W 31-24	54	20
09/26/09	No. 6 California	3-1 (1-0)	W 42-3	46	70
10/03/09	Washington State	4-1 (2-0)	W 52-6	119	120
10/10/09	@ UCLA	5-1 (3-0)	W 24-10	88	39
10/24/09	@ Washington	6-1 (4-0)	W 43-19	63	79
10/31/09	No. 5 USC	7-1 (5-0)	W 47-20	58	43
11/07/09	@ Stanford	7-2 (5-1)	L 51-42	13	85
11/14/09	Arizona State	8-2 (6-1)	W 44-21	91	12
11/21/09	@ Arizona	9-2 (7-1)	W 44-41 OT	40	21
12/03/09	No. 16 Oregon State	10-2 (8-1)	W 37-33	28	50
				55.08	51.67
Ohio State
09/05/09	Navy	1-0 (0-0)	W 31-27	84	36
09/12/09	No. 3 USC	1-1 (0-0)	L 18-15	58	43
09/19/09	@ Toledo	2-1 (0-0)	W 38-0	16	96
09/26/09	Illinois	3-1 (1-0)	W 30-0	50	91
10/03/09	@ Indiana	4-1 (2-0)	W 33-14	70	89
10/10/09	Wisconsin	5-1 (3-0)	W 31-13	34	18
10/17/09	@ Purdue	5-2 (3-1)	L 26-18	53	68
10/24/09	Minnesota	6-2 (4-1)	W 38-7	113	61
10/31/09	New Mexico State	7-2 (4-1)	W 45-0	120	104
11/07/09	@ No. 11 Penn State	8-2 (5-1)	W 24-7	36	8
11/14/09	No. 10 Iowa	9-2 (6-1)	W 27-24 OT	93	11
11/21/09	@ Michigan	10-2 (7-1)	W 21-10	59	81
				65.5	58.83

As one can see by the averages at the end of each of the last two columns, what the Ducks faced in terms of both offense and defense seem to be better than tOSU.  This is somewhat glaring in that the Ducks O faced teams, on average, ten spots better than tOSU.  On the other side of the ball, the Duck D faced teams, on average, 7 spots better than tOSU.

The inverse of the above is that part of the reason tOSU's D looks so good statistically is because they didn't face offensive juggernauts. Granted the Ducks faced Washington State, but tOSU faced two offenses in the 100's (Minnesota and NM State).

Maybe more telling, tOSU faced passing offenses that ranked an average of 68 and rushing offenses that ranked 54, whereas Oregon faced passing offenses that averaged 51 and 60 respectively.  One could argue that tOSU's D numbers should be higher and that would be true if their D was as good as advertised in the number 5 slot.  However, because the Ducks faced superior offenses, their D ranking of 32 is quite respectable.

Even more telling, tOSU faced rushing defenses that averaged 62 while Oregon faced rushing D's that averaged 52.  tOSU should have higher rushing offensive numbers, but alas they do not, still being ranked 19th isn't too bad.  On the other hand the difference between facing an average of 52 rushing D and having a rushing O of 6 is way more impressive.  For you number crunchers, the difference is tOSU 46 and Oregon 43 spots and the difference between the two rushing offenses is Oregon +37 yards per game.

What does all this mean?

Pretty much, what I've been saying since the first blog, tOSU's defense looks good because they simply didn't face the offensive units that should have challenged their defense.  Had the Bucks faced offenses like Oregon did, and I dare say their numbers would much higher - just like Oregon's are.  On the other hand, had the Ducks faced offenses like tOSU did, their numbers would be lower.

On the other side of the ball, Oregon faced stouter defenses on the whole than what tOSU did.  Again this is telling in that had tOSU faced the type of defenses that Oregon did, their offensive numbers would be lower.  The complete opposite would be true for the Ducks, for had they faced the lesser defenses that tOSU did, the Duck offensive numbers would be higher.

All in all, tOSU fans argue that the Ducks have never faced a defense like tOSU's.  However, the numbers just don't agree and in fact the numbers indicate that the Oregon D should be enough to contain some of the tOSU offense.  The other side wouldn't be true in that the numbers indicate that the Buck D won't be able to contain the Duck O.


Time to start looking at predictions and at this point I'm going to say that both teams would be equal in the passing game, but in the rushing game it looks like maybe the Ducks will prevail.

Ducks:  43
Bucks:  28