Monday, December 7, 2009

Oregon v Ohio State - A Tale of Two Stories - Part 3: Defenses v Offenses

Here is a quote from tBBC
BuckeyeSki says:
Did I really just read a post from an OREGON fan, citing DEFENSE as the reason they will beat us? Run stuffing? Are you kidding me? Don’t tell JaQuizz Rodgers that, cuz his 125 lb. ass ran all over that 11-girl unit they call a “D”
Answer: Yep, a whole 64 yards.  Of course to tOSU fans, that is a lot of yards for their RB's.


So, in order to look at the defenses, we have to look at the quality of offenses that those defenses faced.  In other words, if the offenses a team faced all year long never got more than 100 yards or 10 points, that would look really good for the defense.  However, if the different offenses a team faced all year averaged 500 yards and 50 points per game the defense won't look so good.


The flip side is that if all the offenses a defense faced all year averaged 500 yards and 50 points, but the D was able to hold them to half that, then the D would look good.  The other side of the flip side is that if the offenses that the D faced all year averaged 100 yards per game and 10 points and the D was unable to keep them to less than double, the D would look bad.


Clear as mud?  Look at the chart below and maybe it'll be come muddier.



Team A Defense
Offenses Faced


Allowed
Averaged
Game 1
100
500
Game 2
101
501
Game 3
102
502
Game 4
103
503
Game 5
104
504
Game 6
105
505
Game 7
106
506
Game 8
107
507
Game 9
108
508
Game 10
109
509
Game 11
110
510
Game 12
111
511


105.5
505.5







Team B Defense
Offenses Faced


Allowed
Averaged
Game 1
500
100
Game 2
501
101
Game 3
502
102
Game 4
503
103
Game 5
504
104
Game 6
505
105
Game 7
506
106
Game 8
507
107
Game 9
508
108
Game 10
509
109
Game 11
510
110
Game 12
511
111


505.5
105.5



Team C Defense
Offenses Faced


Allowed
Averaged
Game 1
100
100
Game 2
101
101
Game 3
102
102
Game 4
103
103
Game 5
104
104
Game 6
105
105
Game 7
106
106
Game 8
107
107
Game 9
108
108
Game 10
109
109
Game 11
110
110
Game 12
111
111


105.5
105.5








Team D Defense
Offenses Faced


Allowed
Averaged
Game 1
500
500
Game 2
501
501
Game 3
502
502
Game 4
503
503
Game 5
504
504
Game 6
505
505
Game 7
506
506
Game 8
507
507
Game 9
508
508
Game 10
509
509
Game 11
510
510
Game 12
511
511


505.5
505.5

Conclusions would be Team A does have a good D, Team B does not have a good D, Team C appears to have a good D but doesn't and team D appears to have a bad D, but it really isn't bad.  I've way over simplified these.


Now lets look at Big10 v Pac10 and the Bucks v the Ducks:


Big 10
Pac 10
Average Passing O Rank
58.6
58.5
Average Passing D Rank
59
68
Average Rushing O Rank
62
58
Average Rushing D Rank
47
47
Rushers over 1K yards
2
5




Bucks
Ducks
Passing O Rank
106
91
Passing D Rank
17
37
Passing E Rank
66
53
Passing Eff D Rank
7
22
Rushing O Rank
19
6
Rushing D Rank
5
52
Rushers over 1K yards
0
1
Sacks Rank
31
21
Sacks Allowed Rank
48
12
TTL's Rank
43
49



Total O Rank
69
25
Total D Rank
4
32

The bottom line is that Oregon's offense is so much better than tOSU's that the difference between the D's doesn't make up the difference.  The Ducks are 44 places better on offense than the Bucks, but the Bucks are only 28 places better on defense.

What does all this mean blogger friends?

Oregon averages 236 yards per game rushing and tOSU averages only giving up 83.
     Advantage Oregon
The Bucks average 199 yards rushing and the Ducks tend to give up 127.
     Advantage Bucks
The Ducks average 425 yards of offense per game and the Bucks give up 263.
     Advantage Ducks
tOSU averages 365 yards on offense and Oregon gives up 330.
     Advantage Bucks

This is going to be one heck-of-a game.  The last time the Ducks faced an opponent with numbers in comparison to the Oregon like this was USC.  The difference here is that the Ducks were at home and now they are at a neutral site.

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