Oregon v Ohio State - A Tale of Two Stories - Part 4 The Lines

Today we'll look at both Oregon's and Ohio State's Offense and Defense lines.

We'll start with a quote from my favorite Buckeye Homer Blog Boy, tBBC:

...the offensive line. They have been giving Pryor time in the pocket, they have been opening up running lanes to the tune of 200+ yards per game, and they will be facing on Oregon team whose defensive line lacks first round draft talent...(Emphasis is mine)

 I just had to laugh at his comments.  Mr. (young) Pryor, meet Mr. Tukuafu, Mr. Blair, Mr Rowe and do make sure you have extra padding on for this game.  These no name guys may not be Suh, but I'd put them up against anyone in the NCAA.  This is especially true when you add our talented LB's who I think are about the best group of three I've seen in many a year.

But enough of that for the moment, let's look at the match-ups:

	LT	LG	C	RG	RT	TE
Ohio State	Jim Cordle	Justin Boren	Mike Brewster	Bryant Browning	JB Shugarts	Jake Ballard
	6-4,295,Jr	6-3,315,Jr	6-5,296,So	6-4,298,So	6-8,298,So	6-6,256,Sr
	DE	DT	DT	DE
Oregon	Will Tukuafu	Brandon Bair	Blake Ferras	Kenny Rowe
	6-4,262,Sr	6-7,268,Jr	6-6,290,Sr	6-3,232,Jr
	SAM	MIKE	WILL
	Eddie Pleasant	Casey Matthews	Spencer Paysinger
	5-11,207,So	6-2,235,Jr	6-3,226,Jr

	LT	LG	C	RG	RT	TE
Oregon	Bo Thran	Carson York	Jordan Holmes	Mark Asper	CE Kaiser	Ed Dickson
	6-5,293,Jr	6-5,285,RFr	6-5,285,Jr	6-7,323,So	6-4,290,Jr	6-5,243,Sr
	DE	DT	DT	DE
Ohio State	Doug Worthington	Todd Denlinger	Thaddeus Gibson	Camerson Heyward
	6-6,276,Sr	6-2,292,Sr	6-2,240,Jr	6-6,287,Jr
	SAM	MIKE	WILL
	Austin Spitler	Brian Rolle	Ross Homan
	6-3,234,Sr	5-11,221,Jr	6-0,229,Jr

Since I start out with the tOSU's O line vs the Ducks D line, I'll just continue that trend.  From a size stand point both lines are very comparable and there just doesn't seem to be any advantage from either side.  However, the tOSU's front five have given up a total of 19 sacks and Oregon has recorded 30 sacks this year.  This could be due to the size of the line or the horsey-ness of the QB wanting to run as soon as the pocket begins to look like it's going to break down.  The numbers would indicate that it's because Pryor has had/wants to run.  Pryor ran 143 times, which is more than any other member of his team.  On the other hand, there are less than a hand full of times when a tOSU back has rushed for a hundred yards this season and two of those would be from Pryor.

One ESPN pundit, Rittenberg, has mentioned that:

"Quarterback Terrelle Pryor struggled early but effectively ran a conservative scheme down the stretch, limiting his mistakes after a four-turnover disaster against Purdue"

However, the numbers just don't seem to agree with him.  In the first half of the season, Pryor passed for 774 yards and ran for 333 yards.  In the second half of the season, Pryor passed for 659 and ran for 374 yards, the difference between the two halves is less than a hundred yards(1107 v 1033).  Incidentally, the Bucks QB's were sacked more times in the second half than in the first.

Pryor's completions in the first half were better, but he also had more Ints in the first half as well.  Interestingly, Pryor's pass efficiency in the 2nd more-conservative-half was not as good as the first half when he "less conservative".  Ohio State's total offense in the Big10 is 9th out of 11 teams, however in all fairness it has also faced what is currently the 4th and 10th ranked defenses in the country.  But from there it really falls off.  In the Big10 it then ranges from 41 to 95.  Interestingly, tOSU could only score 18 points against the 90th defense in the nation - that same defense that Oregon scored 38 against.

Finally, tOSU has given up a total of 10 Ints and Oregon has 13 Ints against far more potent offenses with national rankings with half the P10 in the top 50 in offense and only two of the B10 in the top 50 that tOSU faced.  The point of this is that had the Ducks faced more offenses not ranked in the top 50, they may very well have had more Ints.  Additionally, the Ducks registered 32 sacks and 72 TTL's against those offenses.

I would have to say that the advantage here firmly belongs to Oregon.

Oregon's O line vs OSU's D Line

This is a far more interesting read then what I've wrote about before.  From a pure size standpoint, I am thinking Oregon has the advantage.  This front five has faced defenses (when they faced them) ranked in the top ten or twenty.  More specifically, the Duck O line has faced (again when they faced them) 4 defenses in the top ten and another 2 defenses in the top 20.  So half of the teams that the Ducks have faced were all top defenses.

Here's what our favorite blogger has said about tOSU's D Line:

The saying goes that games are won in the trenches, and Tresselball magnifies the importance of winning the trenches tenfold. So, if the Buckeyes can smash the opponent in the trenches (like they have been) everything else will follow, including a victory.

Going into the year, I (along with many others) expected the defensive line to be the strength of the team. Well, we were right. Well, now that I am trying to ramp up the confidence levels for the bowl game, it is time to talk about the embarrassment of riches that is the Ohio State defensive line.

The only real stat that I can find that is an embarrassment of riches would be the Int's that tOSU has enjoyed, which are an embarrassment to the tune of 23 on the year.  However, at the time they faced them, tOSU only face three offenses in the top ten and one of those (USC), Oregon put up a then record number of everything on them.  Currently there is not a single team in the top 30 nationally in total offense in the B10.  Well defensive numbers always look better against non-offensive teams - just ask the SEC - LOL.

The flip side is that the Oregon offensive line has faced what I mentioned above, top ten defenses and the Ducks still managed to rack up a ton of yards and points.  Only one team was able to keep the Ducks to less than 20 points and that was the fluke game of BSU who at the time was ranked 9th in total defense and is still ranked 13th nationally.

Ohio State has not faced a rusher with a per carry average greater than 5.9 and Oregon has two in James and Masoli.  Additionally, tOSU defense has not faced a team that ranks higher than 15th nationally in rushing.  Oregon currently is ranked 6th.  Additionally tOSU has not faced a team ranked in the top 20 in scoring offense and the Ducks are ranked 7th.  Finally, tOSU has not faced a team that is currently ranked in the top 33 in total offense and Oregon is ranked 25th.

Bottom line here is that tOSU simply has not faced an offense that is as fast or potent as the Duck offense and I am thinking that the D may be overly matched.

The ace in the hole for the Oregon line is someone tOSU has never faced and that is LaGarrett Blount.  Blount may not get the lion's share of the carries, but as is evidenced by the Oregon State game, Blount still has a lot to bring and still has a lot to prove to the world when it comes to his ability to run the ball.

What does all this mean?

It means that the Ducks are far more experienced at facing good defenses than tOSU is at facing good offenses.  Additionally, the Oregon defense is far more experienced at facing good offenses than tOSU is.

All this means is that the Duck lines are simply more experienced, more tested, and all with comparable size.

Oregon v Stanford - Special Teams

As promised, today I am going to devote the whole blog just to special teams.  Considering that Stanford is ranked number 1 in kickoff returns and Oregon is ranked number 3, this could be very important.

To start, I'll talk about the punting where Oregon is last in the P10 with an average net punt of 35.71 yards whereas Stanford is 8th with 36.82 yards per punt.  However, on punt returns, Oregon is second in the P10 and Stanford is 6th.  However, I think the Oregon stats are a little misleading as they account for a 15.0 average return utilizing Walter Thurmond III who is out for the season.  Since WT3's injury Kenjon Barner has taken the lion's share of the punt return duties and is averaging 7.1 yards per punt on 8 returns.  For Stanford, Drew Terrell has taken over the PR duties and is averaging 10 yards returned per kick on 5 returns.

	Player	No	Yds	Avg	TD's	Long
Stanford	Drew Terrell	5	50	10	0	22
Oregon	Kenjon Barner	8	57	7.1	0	31

Now on to the kickoff returns.

As mentioned above, this game premiers two of the best Kickoff returners in the country.

	Player	No	Yds	Avg	TD's	Long	Player Rank
Stanford	Chris Owusu	19	668	35.2	3	94	6
Oregon	Kenjon Barner	11	389	35.4	1	100	5

What does all this mean Verne?

The punt returners are pretty equal and don't average much.  However, depending on the scoring, kickoff returns could play a significant part.  Each team will kickoff at least once and with the high scoring that the Ducks produce, the chances of Owusu returning a big one is much higher.

Going on my earlier prediction of 52-21 Oregon is going to be a tad bit off.  I am really thinking that it will be along the lines of 48-21.  This means that Stanford will have nine shots at running one back for a TD.  If you look at Owusu's number of TD's per try, he is averaging 1 TD to just over 6 tries.  Statistically, that would mean that if Oregon scores 6 TD's and two FG's, that is a total of nine tries (6 on the TD's, two on FG's and an initial half kickoff).  Oregon on the other hand would get four tries.

I am expecting that Owusu will run one back and that the Cards will score two other TD's with their offense.  I was asked why I thought Stanford would score more points on Oregon than USC and my answer is this;  Oregon played USC at Autzen and I was not impressed with the offense that USC displayed.  On the other hand, I think the Stanford offense is more potent, if for no other reason than Oregon won't be at Autzen.

Other notes:

Three TD's for the Cards seems reasonable considering they have Gerhart and are putting up 230 yards passing.  I would love to be wrong and I was wrong on last week's USC score by one point, however I was way wrong on what Oregon was able to produce.

I am not making that mistake this week.  Thusly, I am sticking with a my educated guesstimate of 48-21.  In the P10, Oregon is beating it's opponents by an average of 30 points, largely due to the blowouts with Cal and WSU.  I am thinking that another 27 point difference is not stretching it too much considering the Cards porous defense.

Stanford is allowing an average of over 360 yards for their opponent's offense, 126 rushing alone.  I am afraid that with Masoli and James running the ball, they could put up 360 just in rushing.  I would not be surprised if the Oregon offense puts up over 500 yards total.

Considering the Stanford offense, I am not yet convinced that Luck is very good at the scramble when compared to the speed of Oregon's D.  I am not saying that Luck can't run, I'm not sure he can out run the Ducks speedy and stout D.  Still I think he'll manage to put up a couple of TD's, one rushing and the other a long ball that get's by someone.  The other TD, I've already give to Owusu.

This looks like it's going to be a fun game to watch and I think Stanford will be more pesky than what a lot of people expect.

So there you have it, Oregon 48, Stanford 21.