Oregon v Ohio State - A Tale of Two Stories - Part 9: Attempts

Today, I'm going to take yet another look at the stats, only this time, instead of looking at just the yards, I'm going to look at the per attempts.

Passing:
Note: Masoli is ranked 68th and Pryor 97th in passing. 
tOSU averages only 9.90 yards per pass completion defense and Oregon averages 12.04 per completion.  The Ducks average 10.53 yards pass defense and the Bucks average 13.19 per completion.  The difference is the Ducks get 2.14 more yards per catch against the Bucks and the Bucks get 2.63 more yards against the Ducks.  However, having said all of the above, Masoli has accounted for a total of 27 TD's to Pryor's 23. 

Advantage Ducks

Rushing:
tOSU averages 2.66 yards in run defense and Oregon averages 5.51 per run offense.  On the other side the Ducks give up 3.41 yards per run and the Bucks get 4.66 yards per run.  Roughly that is a 3 yard difference when the Ducks have the ball and only about 1 when the Bucks have the ball.

For rushers who have rushed at least 100 times this season, tOSU has three, Saine, Pryor and Herron who have rushed 412 times for 1959 yards and an average of 4.76 per carry.  Oregon on the other hand has two, James and Masoli who have rushed 330 times for 2135 yards and an average of 6.3 per carry. James by himself has more yards, fewer carries and a better average than tOSU's top two rushers (Saine & Pryor).

Advantage Ducks

Totals:
tOSU gives up an average of 4.07 yards per play and Oregon averages 6.13 per offensive play.  Meanwhile the Ducks give up 4.58 while on defense and the Bucks average 5.54 per play.  Again that is 2 yards more that the Ducks average while on offense verses only 1 for the Bucks.

Advantage Ducks

Passing Efficiency:
tOSU averages a passing efficiency defense of 97 rating and a completion percent of 54.66 and Oregon averages 131.71 passing efficiency and a completion ration of 59.12.  On the other side, the Ducks average a passing efficiency defense of 110.60 and a 55.26 completion rate while the Bucks average 127.45 and a completion percentage of 54.32 while on offense.

Advantage Bucks

Special Teams:
On kickoff's Oregon averages over 24 yards per return compared to tOSU's over 23 yards.  On punting Oregon averages 39.64 yards per punt and returns 11.41 yards per punt.  tOSU averages 37.97 yards per punt and only 8.39 per punt return.

Advantage Ducks

Turnovers:
tOSU averages 1.33 turnovers per game and Oregon only averages .25 per game.  However, the Bucks are +3 on fumbles and the Ducks are -3 on Fumbles.  The Ducks averaged a little over one Int per game and the Bucks averaged a little over 2.

Advantage Bucks

This and That:
tOSU averages 2.42 sacks per game while Oregon averages giving up only 1.00 sacks per game.  On the other side, the Ducks average 2.67 sacks per game and the Bucks give up 1.67 sacks per game. 

tOSU averages 6.17 tackles for a loss (TFL's) per game and Oregon averages 6.00 per game.


Advantage Ducks


This takes care of all the official NCAA stats that they keep or at least publish.

So...the bottom line here is that by all accounts it should be the Ducks that wins the Rose Bowl and I am still going to go with what their scoring averages indicate;

Ducks 38
Bucks 29

Oregon v Ohio State - A Tale of Two Stories - Part 7 - Schedules

Today, lets breakdown the schedules for both teams, it may prove enlightening.

Ohio State
09/05/09	NAVY	31 - 27	W
09/12/09	USC	15 - 18	L
09/19/09	@ Toledo ^	38 - 0	W
09/26/09	ILLINOIS	30 - 0	W
10/03/09	@ Indiana *	33 - 14	W
10/10/09	WISCONSIN	31 - 13	W
10/17/09	@ Purdue	18 - 26	L
10/24/09	MINNESOTA	38 - 7	W
10/31/09	NEW MEXICO ST.	45 - 0	W
11/07/09	@ Penn St.	24 - 7	W
11/14/09	IOWA	27 - 24	W OT
11/21/09	@ Michigan	21 - 10	W
Oregon
09/03/09	@ Boise St. *	8-19	L
09/12/09	PURDUE *	38 - 36	W
09/19/09	UTAH	31 - 24	W
09/26/09	CALIFORNIA	42 - 3	W
10/03/09	WASHINGTON ST.	52 - 6	W
10/10/09	@ UCLA	24 - 10	W
10/24/09	@ Washington	43 - 19	W
10/31/09	USC	47 - 20	W
11/07/09	@ Stanford	42 - 51	L
11/14/09	ARIZONA ST.	44 - 21	W
11/21/09	@ Arizona	44 - 41	W 2OT
12/03/09	OREGON ST. *	37 - 33	W

Now that we see what each team did, lets look at how each opponent ended up (Note, I would have preferred to use the rankings as each team faced them, but apparently tOSU fans have a problem with that, so I'll use the end of season results):

				Overall	Overall
Oregon				O Ranking	D Ranking
09/03/09	@ No. 14 Boise State	0-1 (0-0)	L 19-8	8	13
09/12/09	Purdue	1-1 (0-0)	W 38-36	53	68
09/19/09	No. 18 Utah	2-1 (0-0)	W 31-24	54	20
09/26/09	No. 6 California	3-1 (1-0)	W 42-3	46	70
10/03/09	Washington State	4-1 (2-0)	W 52-6	119	120
10/10/09	@ UCLA	5-1 (3-0)	W 24-10	88	39
10/24/09	@ Washington	6-1 (4-0)	W 43-19	63	79
10/31/09	No. 5 USC	7-1 (5-0)	W 47-20	58	43
11/07/09	@ Stanford	7-2 (5-1)	L 51-42	13	85
11/14/09	Arizona State	8-2 (6-1)	W 44-21	91	12
11/21/09	@ Arizona	9-2 (7-1)	W 44-41 OT	40	21
12/03/09	No. 16 Oregon State	10-2 (8-1)	W 37-33	28	50
				55.08	51.67
Ohio State
09/05/09	Navy	1-0 (0-0)	W 31-27	84	36
09/12/09	No. 3 USC	1-1 (0-0)	L 18-15	58	43
09/19/09	@ Toledo	2-1 (0-0)	W 38-0	16	96
09/26/09	Illinois	3-1 (1-0)	W 30-0	50	91
10/03/09	@ Indiana	4-1 (2-0)	W 33-14	70	89
10/10/09	Wisconsin	5-1 (3-0)	W 31-13	34	18
10/17/09	@ Purdue	5-2 (3-1)	L 26-18	53	68
10/24/09	Minnesota	6-2 (4-1)	W 38-7	113	61
10/31/09	New Mexico State	7-2 (4-1)	W 45-0	120	104
11/07/09	@ No. 11 Penn State	8-2 (5-1)	W 24-7	36	8
11/14/09	No. 10 Iowa	9-2 (6-1)	W 27-24 OT	93	11
11/21/09	@ Michigan	10-2 (7-1)	W 21-10	59	81
				65.5	58.83

As one can see by the averages at the end of each of the last two columns, what the Ducks faced in terms of both offense and defense seem to be better than tOSU.  This is somewhat glaring in that the Ducks O faced teams, on average, ten spots better than tOSU.  On the other side of the ball, the Duck D faced teams, on average, 7 spots better than tOSU.

The inverse of the above is that part of the reason tOSU's D looks so good statistically is because they didn't face offensive juggernauts. Granted the Ducks faced Washington State, but tOSU faced two offenses in the 100's (Minnesota and NM State).

Maybe more telling, tOSU faced passing offenses that ranked an average of 68 and rushing offenses that ranked 54, whereas Oregon faced passing offenses that averaged 51 and 60 respectively.  One could argue that tOSU's D numbers should be higher and that would be true if their D was as good as advertised in the number 5 slot.  However, because the Ducks faced superior offenses, their D ranking of 32 is quite respectable.

Even more telling, tOSU faced rushing defenses that averaged 62 while Oregon faced rushing D's that averaged 52.  tOSU should have higher rushing offensive numbers, but alas they do not, still being ranked 19th isn't too bad.  On the other hand the difference between facing an average of 52 rushing D and having a rushing O of 6 is way more impressive.  For you number crunchers, the difference is tOSU 46 and Oregon 43 spots and the difference between the two rushing offenses is Oregon +37 yards per game.

What does all this mean?

Pretty much, what I've been saying since the first blog, tOSU's defense looks good because they simply didn't face the offensive units that should have challenged their defense.  Had the Bucks faced offenses like Oregon did, and I dare say their numbers would much higher - just like Oregon's are.  On the other hand, had the Ducks faced offenses like tOSU did, their numbers would be lower.

On the other side of the ball, Oregon faced stouter defenses on the whole than what tOSU did.  Again this is telling in that had tOSU faced the type of defenses that Oregon did, their offensive numbers would be lower.  The complete opposite would be true for the Ducks, for had they faced the lesser defenses that tOSU did, the Duck offensive numbers would be higher.

All in all, tOSU fans argue that the Ducks have never faced a defense like tOSU's.  However, the numbers just don't agree and in fact the numbers indicate that the Oregon D should be enough to contain some of the tOSU offense.  The other side wouldn't be true in that the numbers indicate that the Buck D won't be able to contain the Duck O.


Time to start looking at predictions and at this point I'm going to say that both teams would be equal in the passing game, but in the rushing game it looks like maybe the Ducks will prevail.

Ducks:  43
Bucks:  28

Oregon v Ohio State - A Tale of Two Stories - Part 1: Rushing

Ok, so I've been away for a while, but now that I'm back, it's time to crunch the number.

First, I happened upon a blog that totally distorted the number and dissing the Ducks The Buckeye Battle Cry.

So, I attempted to correct and critique him and he deleted my posts.  Normally, I am pretty impartial because I think it's simply better reading.  However, I found the actions of this blogger to be so homerist that I had to answer with real numbers.

To begin with, lets look at Mr. Knowitall's first chart:

First, I asked him if these were rankings at the time Oregon played them, or what.  So, using the NCAA's official stats (the game between the Ducks and the Beavers have not yet posted at the time of this writing.  When they are I will update the post), it appeared to me that he was using what are the current rankings, which may not reflect where that team was at the time being played.

Example:  At the time that the Bucks played Navy they had a  national ranking in Rushing Offense of 44 and today it is 3.  Obviously, they are better now then when they played the Bucks.

Realize of course that for the first game there is no national ranking, so for the sake of consistency, I used the results of that first game to determine the ranking.

Now let's look at what that chart shows using the rankings at the time played which is more reflective of actual challenges and not playing the then/now game.

Oregon has faced 7 of their 12 games against defenses in the top 25 and with the exception of BSU, has consistently rushed for far more yards than what that team usually gives up.  Oregon has faced four teams whose rushing defense was in the top 10.

If we look at OSU's chart:

This is interesting because the Bucks are using (in the case of Navy) what they performed in the first game as compared to what they averaged at the end of the year.  Kind of like comparing an apple seed to the apple after it's grown.

Now when we look at that same chart using comparative data:

As one can see, while the Bucks rushing D consistently plays better then the other teams rushing offense, the Bucks have only faced 1 rushing offense that was in the top 10 and currently, Oregon is ranked 8th in the nation.

What is the most interesting are the averages.  Oregon has averaged 236 yards against teams averaging only giving up 101 yards and Oregon has faced teams with an average rushing D rank of 33 to the Bucks 45.

Jeff at The BBC says that "And did anybody tell them that defense wins championships? Well, first we’ll have to explain the concept of “defense” to the entire Pac-10 conference, but still…..".  Hmm, seems to me that USC seemed to show them what defense was when USC beat them in their own house.

The difference in the above numbers comes down to competition.  I'll use an average of all rankings so that there is little or no bias, see Comparative Ratings.

The Bucks have had an average ranking of 11.67 throughout the year and have faced opponents with an average ranking of 54.83.

Oregon on the other hand has had an average ranking of 10.42 and an average opponent ranking of 34.08, a full 20 slots harder than OSU.

Sagarin currently has Oregon's SOS at 5 and OSU's at 60 - a big difference(see below).

Next, I will talk about the two QB's Pryor who almost went to Oregon (thank goodness he didn't) and Masoli - who cooks up the offense . . .oh never mind.

Finally, Jeff says:

In the meantime, they’ll start screaming about how they beat this team and that team and it proves they will win. They’ll stomp their little feet and then they’ll hold their breath until you agree with them.  However, their pathetic comparisons are the most unscientific method you could find, and they’re often the tool used to justify fear.(emphasis is mine).

And yet, he uses skewed data in his tables.  I do hope he is not an example of the college level of OSU grads or even students.  

Carroll refuses to shake hands with Chip Kelly.

To the vastness of pundits that predicted USC would destroy Oregon, I have two words for you:

SCOREBOARD BABY!!

By now, you've already read the stats ad nauseum so there is really no point in going over them in detail again.  One of the things I want to discuss is the crowd.

Now, Barkley says that the crowd didn't affect him and in the first half, I might have to agree with him.  But this game is a tale of two halves.  In the first half, as long as USC was in it, Barkley seemed to be okay, but in the second half as Oregon started to get further and further ahead, Barkley seemed to be falling apart...

Barkley ended the game with 21-38 passing and a garbage int.   That is about 55% of his passes completed with 187 yards.  Conversely, Masoli 19-31-0 or about 61% and 222 Yards.  That equates to 8.9 yards per completion for Barkley and 11.7 yards per completion for Masoli.  The other stat that is very telling per the crowd is this:

USC had 6 missed starts.

I initially expected something along the lines of 28-19 for a final score.  Not in my wildest senior moments did I expect that the 28-19 would turn out to be the combined score just for Oregon.

So, in the final analysis of the crowd mostly in black, regardless of what Barkley says, the crowd affected him and his OL.

Now on to something that just torques me to no end.  

If Chip Kelly had just sauntered out to midfield to shake hands with Pete Carroll, there would have be no Pete Carroll (ala 2007 with Mike Belotti) to shake hands with.

Instead, Chip Kelly had to run, (mind you for the elegantly portly CK, that might have been a heath risk, I know I'm elegantly portly too), run to catch Carroll before he went into the tunnel and even then it appeared to this blogger that Carroll was trying to brush off Kelly.  It looked like it required Kelly to grab a hold of Carroll in order to whisper something in to Carroll's ear.

I dont' know if it's because this was the fourth consecutive loss in the great State of Oregon for the Trojans, or if Carroll just has a hard time with not winning.  No one likes to lose, but it is a sign of a true champion to be humble in victory and gracious in defeat.  Carroll has always seemed to be gloating in victory and sorely in defeat  - at least where Oregon is concerned.

This has been a sore spot for Oregon fans since at least 2007 and bless Chip Kelly, he was more of a man, forcing himself on Pete Carroll, if for no other reason than to try and save Carroll's rep with the Oregon fans.  I mean, even if Carroll thought that Chip Kelly was running up the score (remember last year USC won 44-10 - a 34 point margin and with just under 2 minutes left in the game, Mustain threw a 59 yard TD pass to Ausberry - effectively running up the score), that didn't rise to the level of being crass.

But what Chip Kelly did was the very definition of what a champion should be doing.  That is the character that Chip Kelly has imputed upon his players, and while a stray gets away once in a while, generally the rest of the pack seems to echo that very definition of what a Kelly champion should be.

Apparently I am not the only one to notice this after I did a Google search and many other seems to have seen the same thing, so I'm not having a dementia moment.

Finally, if a coach epitomizes the character of the team, then the following must be true:

Kelly = Oregon Ducks = Class.
Carroll = USC = Classless.

I am sorry for the USC fans, I think Rome is . . .err. . . Troy is burning.

USC v Oregon - Predictions from around the country

I don't use Bleacher Report because everybody and their brother predicts something and it's just too much to try and keep up.

Site	Oregon	USC	Notes:
Rob Mosley – Register Guard	29	27
ESPN Insider	23	28
AccuScore	52%	47%
ESPN Ted Miller	27	24
CFN Fearless Predictions	27	33
CFN Sport Picks	2	4	Number of staff picking Oregon vs Opponent
Sporting News Picks	2	4	Number of staff picking Oregon vs Opponent
Sporting News Picks – Jim Gilstrap	34	31
Sporting News Picks – Matt Hayes	24	27
Sporting News Picks – Steve Greenburg	30	31
Sporting News Picks – Brian McLaughlin	24	21
Sporting News Picks – Dave Curtis	23	28
Sporting News Picks – Derek Samson	21	24
College Football News DG on PX	24	31
CBS Sport Picks	4	1	Number of staff picking Oregon vs Opponent
NBC Sports	26	24
USA Today	20	28
Jon Wilner – Mercury News	Pick		No Score
Sports Ilustrated	30	27
Bud Withers – Seattle Times	20	26
Phil Steele	20	27
Alabama.com	27	30
GatorSports.com	28	21

Currently it's pretty close those picks:


Picks
Oregon 10
USC 13