Now to the Manziel - Mariota Matchup

There has been a lot of talk during last season and since then, about how close and perhaps how apart Johnny Manziel and Marcus Mariota are in terms of their ability to help their team and being the "team general". While we all know that "Johnny Football" won the Heisman last year, a lot of fans argue that Mariota was short changed because of only playing a single half in over half of his games. Adding fuel to the fire is Coach Helf's comment that they would score often and all game long. Hmm- makes you wonder if he won't be pulling Mariota in the second half again in favor of giving the back ups more real game time scenario reps.

So - let's take a look and see what we can draw from and how they would compare if Mariota had played the entire game in all 13 games. Those games where he only played a half I will show how his number doubled from the first half.

Using the matrix of stats offered by the NCAA on each team page, lets see how the two teams ranked nationally in each category:

	Oregon		Texas A&M
	Nat'l Rank		Nat'l Rank
Rushing Offense	3		11
Passing Offense	72		14
Total Offense	5		3
Scoring Offense	2		4
Rushing Defense	44		35
Pass Efficiency Defense	15		39
Total Defense	44		57
Scoring Defense	25		26
Turnover Margin	1		86
Pass Defense	56		86
Passing Efficiency	7		20
Sacks	50		36
Tackles For Loss	39		61
Sacks Allowed	35		53
Average	28.43		37.93

Oregon averaged national ranks by over 133 percent over Texas A&M. Of course national ranks are also dependent on the national ranks of their opponents. For example, if Oregon, played opponents that averaged in the bottom 10 percent of the NCAA, then the numbers could be inflated by that imbalance of team quality. On the other hand, if Oregon played teams in the top 25-10 percent, their numbers would be deflated because of the quality of the competition.
So, that begs the question, how did the two teams schedule effect affected each team? Let's take a look, first at the average rank for both offense and defense, minus special teams.

	Oregon	Texas A&M
Offense	56.62	59.05
Defense	56.71	44.66
Overall	56.67	53.97

Immediately, you notice that Texas A&M played much better defenses than Oregon, at least according to the stats. However, as I mentioned above, stats can be misleading depending on the quality of the opponents opponents. So, let's look at how the opponents fared in each category:

	Oregon	Texas A&M
Rushing O	60.31	63.77
Passing O	50.85	62.69
Total O	54.69	54.46
Scoring O	50.85	41.54
Rushing D	64.38	49.77
Pass Eff D	56.23	49.85
Total D	62.00	49.15
Scoring D	61.08	48.77
Turnover Margin	51.92	60.23
Pass D	66.69	55.85
Pass Eff	53.46	48.31
Sacks	47.23	54.31
TFL's	44.15	58.77
Sacks Allowed	69.54	58.17
Total	56.67	53.97

To fully understand the opponents rankings, we would have to look at the opponents – opponents rankings and I have not done that yet, it would take a long, long time.+

Everything clear as mud yet?

Now to the individual rankings:

Marcus	Mariota
	Games Played	Rushing					Passing					Total Offense		Pts
		No.	Gain	Loss	Net	TDs	Att	Comp	Int	Yards	TD	Plays	Yds
Totals	13	106	898	146	752	5	336	230	6	2677	32	442	3429	36
Diff	0	-95	-673	-15	-658	-16	-98	-65	-3	-1029	6	-193	-1687	-90
Johnny	Manziel
	Games Played	Rushing					Passing					Total Offense		Pts
		No.	Gain	Loss	Net	TDs	Att	Comp	Int	Yards	TD	Plays	Yds
Totals	13	201	1571	161	1410	21	434	295	9	3706	26	635	5116	126
Diff	0	95	673	15	658	16	98	65	3	1029	-6	193	1687	90

As something of a proviso, Mariota had 12 points in receptions that Manziel didn't have.

If we double Mariota's numbers for those games he didn't complete, then we get:

Marcus	Mariota
	Games Played	Rushing					Passing					Total Offense		Pts
		Rushes	Gain	Loss	Net	TDs	Att	Comp	Int	Yards	TD	Plays	Yds
Totals	13	177	1502	245	1257	9	588	407	11	4677	57	765	5934	66
Diff	0	-24	-69	84	-153	-12	154	112	2	971	31	130	818	-60
Johnny	Manziel
	Games Played	Rushing					Passing					Total Offense		Pts
		Rushes	Gain	Loss	Net	TDs	Att	Comp	Int	Yards	TD	Plays	Yds
Totals	13	201	1571	161	1410	21	434	295	9	3706	26	635	5116	126
Diff	0	24	69	-84	153	12	-154	-112	-2	-971	-31	-130	-818	60

In the above scenario, Mariota had, the best numbers. By these new numbers, Mariota would have had an amazing year for a QB. Mariota would have broken Akili Smith's single season passing record. Perhaps he will have a complete year, given what Coach Helf said about scoring, and show everyone what Ducks fans already know, that Mariota is by and far away the best QB in the nation.

Now for a historical perspective among Oregon QB's and using just the raw numbers:

	Number	Player	Year		Mariota	Mariota Adj*
Attps:	426	Graziani	1995		336	588
Comp's:	231	Musgrave	1989		230	407
Yards:	3763	Smith	1998		2677	4677
TD's:	33	Thomas	2011		32	57
Pass Eff	167.3	Smith	1998		163.23	287.28
YPC	17.5	Smith	1998		11.64	20.49
*Mariota's numbers if he'd completed all games

This would be exciting for any Ducks fan. However, as has been happening in my little town in Arizona (even with the AZ team fans) the Ducks have become the team to watch, especially if you just want a fun football game and this phenomenon has been happening nationwide.

However, and maybe more important in that fuzzy “field general” statistic that isn't really counted by the bean counters is the fact that Marcus has said many a time that he would rather have the W then to have the stats. That is, in my opinion, the very definition of a “field general” giving credit and taking the blame – in other words, “the team is more important than I am” mentality.

For the soft spoken, unfazeable sophomore, this could be a monstrous year in terms of both the W column and his own stats.

Can I dream now? Is it possible that Oregon will, this year, produce it's first Heisman trophy winner? We can only wait and see and for me, that's the hard part.