Time to start looking at Oregon vs Stanford

Time to start looking at Oregon at Stanford and like Chip Kelly says, one game at a time.  When asked whether the USC game was the biggest victory in Kelly's career, he gave the classic Kelly answer that we've all come to know and love.

"It was this week".

That's Chip Kelly's mantra, one week at a time and the rest will take care of it's self.  Control what you can control and don't worry about the rest because you just waste energy.

Now, being the number cruncher kind of guy that I am, lets look at how the Ducks stack up against the Cardinals statistically:

	Ducks	Stanford	Ducks	Stanford
Rushing Offense	8	16	1	0
Passing Offense	105	49	0	1
Total Offense	45	20	0	1
Scoring Offense	9	24	1	0
Rushing Defense	45	51	1	0
Pass Efficiency Defense	4	80	1	0
Total Defense	20	67	1	0
Scoring Defense	19	44	1	0
Net Punting	65	43	0	1
Punt Returns	37	57	1	0
Kickoff Returns	3	1	0	1
Turnover Margin	30	83	1	0
Pass Defense	25	89	1	0
Passing Efficiency	67	19	0	1
Sacks	11	55	1	0
Tackles For Loss	32	108	1	0
Sacks Allowed	38	5	0	1
			11	6

Normally I would say that is should be a close game, just by the numbers.  However, these numbers are a little more telling than usual.  Statistically, last week USC was better, at least they were last week.  We kind of have to jump around a little to get the proper perspective.

Starting with the Rushing offense, Gerhart for Stanford is the number one running back in the league, however as a team, Oregon is out rushing Stanford by a margin of about 25 yards per game (233.25 UO/205.63/Stanford).  If we refine that to just P10 games, then the margin is more, Oregon averages 285 per game and Stanford averages 219.83 per game.  Now is we look at the run defense, things get a little more interesting. 

Oregon averages 121.5 on run D, while Stanford averages 126.38 on run D.  If we look just at the P10 games again, Oregon gives up an average of 103.8 per game and Stanford gives up an average of 122.67 yards per game.  Honestly that doesn't too bad for the Stanford D - But remember USC had the number 5 rushing D in the country - at lease until last week.

Advantage is Oregon's in the Rushing offense and defense.

Now, let's look at the passing offense and defense.  Currently the Ducks averages 165.5 per game passing while Stanford averages 229.63 per game.  Again, if we just look at P10 games, the numbers change to Oregon averaging 223.4 per game and Stanford is averaging 231.67 per game. 

On the other side, the Ducks are averaging and here we have a couple of numbers to look at.  First there is the yardage, Oregon is giving up an average of 179.28 and Stanford is giving up an average of 239.88.  Additionally, Oregon's pass efficiency D is at 94.88 and Stanford's is 131.76. 

Now if we just look at the P10 games, Oregon is giving up 156.4 yards per game and Stanford is giving up 251.33 yards per game.  That is very nearly a hundred P10 yards per game difference!

Advantage here is kind of a toss up.

Now lets look at scoring offense and defense.  Oregon is averaging 35.63 points per game and Stanford is averaging 31.88.  Not a lot of difference there.  Now, if we just look at the P10 games, Oregon is averaging 41.6 points per game and Stanford is averaging, 29.5 points per game, kind of a big difference here.


If we look at the other side of the ball, Oregon gives up an average of 17.13 points per game and Stanford is giving up 22.38 points per game.  If we again just look at the P10 games, Oregon is giving up 11.6 points per game and Stanford is giving up 23 points per game.

In the points game, Oregon has the distinct advantage.

The other defensive stats we need to look at are the sacks, the TFL's, turnover margin, and the sacks allowed.  In three of four of those categories, Oregon is far and away the better team.  The fourth, sacks allowed could be misconstrued as the Ducks use the running QB.

Advantage is clearly Oregon's.

Finally we look at the Special Teams.  This is an area that requires great speculation as one never knows where this going to go.  However, It pits two of the better teams in the nation in kickoff returns.  This could really be an exciting game just for the kick offs.  Otherwise Oregon has the better punt returns but Stanford seems to have better net punting.

I would have to give a slight advantage here to Stanford.

If you have been following me, I tend to make a prediction on Mondays and then adjust as we explore deeper into the two teams.  So today, I am expecting to see something along the lines of and again this will probably be adjusted:


Oregon 48
Stanford 24


Stanford fans who have not had the benefit of reading my wonderful blogs might think I am total dismissing them, but it's not true.  As we move about through the week, I will very likely move those numbers up and down as personnel are looked at.