Oregon v Stanford - Predictions From Around The Country

Today is Saturday - GAMEDAY - with Stanford and as I has started doing every Saturday, I am posting a smattering of predictions from around the country.

Site	Oregon	Stanford	Notes:
Rob Mosley – Register Guard	35	17
ESPN Insider	27	21
AccuScore	71%	27%
ESPN Ted Miller	40	28
CFN Fearless Predictions	33	24
CFN Sport Picks	4	0	Number of staff picking Oregon vs Opponent
Sporting News Picks	5	1	Number of staff picking Oregon vs Opponent
Sporting News Picks – Jim Gilstrap	34	24
Sporting News Picks – Matt Hayes	34	23
Sporting News Picks – Steve Greenburg	30	28
Sporting News Picks – Brian McLaughlin	35	13
Sporting News Picks – Dave Curtis	34	38
Sporting News Picks – Derek Samson	21	20
College Football News DG on PX	31	21
CBS Sport Picks	5	0	Number of staff picking Oregon vs Opponent
NBC Sports	30	31
USA Today	30	26
Jon Wilner – Mercury News		Pick	No Score
Bud Withers – Seattle Times	32	35
Phil Steele	37	27

That is 16 picks for Oregon and 4 picks for Stanford - a little bit different from last week where it was almost 50/50 with USC getting the nudge.

Of course we all know what happened last week.

Final notes on the game:

I have heard ad nauseum, that this is a let down game for the Ducks and that it is a trap game that Stanford will win.  I guess these same pundits just don't listen to Coach Kelly when he says that the team focuses on each game each week.  Apparently there is some truth to that since the Ducks are undefeated in P10 play.  They also don't listen to the players who are very well grounded and have completely bought into Coach Kelly's program.  With everybody on the same page, I truly fear for the rest of the P10's chances of flying under the radar against these Ducks.

The Ducks are beating their P10 foes by an average of 30 points - 30 points - that is not a typo.  Oregon's scoring offense is number 9 in the country and number 1 in the P10, whereas their scoring defense is number 19 in the country and number 2 in the P10.

Conversely, Stanford is 24th in the country in scoring offense and number 3 in the P10 and their scoring defense is 44th in the country and 5th in the P10.  However the one thing to watch is that Stanford is 19th in the country in passing efficiency and Oregon is 4th in the country in defending that efficiency.

So what does all this mean blog readers?

It means that Oregon will come onto the field ready to play Stanford and only Stanford.  The Ducks have put USC behind them, thrown away the rear-view-mirror, and have blinders only for Stanford.  The Ducks don't even care who they play next weekend, because that weekend isn't here yet and last weekend is already gone.

Stanford on the other hand is trying to become bowl eligible for the first time since dirt was dust (not really, it's only been since 2001 and the last time the Cards beat the Ducks).  So there is some motivation to at least keep the game close.

In spite of the Cards motivations, I think there is too much Ducks for the Cards to handle, final score:

Oregon 48
Stanford 21

Oregon v Stanford - Special Teams

As promised, today I am going to devote the whole blog just to special teams.  Considering that Stanford is ranked number 1 in kickoff returns and Oregon is ranked number 3, this could be very important.

To start, I'll talk about the punting where Oregon is last in the P10 with an average net punt of 35.71 yards whereas Stanford is 8th with 36.82 yards per punt.  However, on punt returns, Oregon is second in the P10 and Stanford is 6th.  However, I think the Oregon stats are a little misleading as they account for a 15.0 average return utilizing Walter Thurmond III who is out for the season.  Since WT3's injury Kenjon Barner has taken the lion's share of the punt return duties and is averaging 7.1 yards per punt on 8 returns.  For Stanford, Drew Terrell has taken over the PR duties and is averaging 10 yards returned per kick on 5 returns.

	Player	No	Yds	Avg	TD's	Long
Stanford	Drew Terrell	5	50	10	0	22
Oregon	Kenjon Barner	8	57	7.1	0	31

Now on to the kickoff returns.

As mentioned above, this game premiers two of the best Kickoff returners in the country.

	Player	No	Yds	Avg	TD's	Long	Player Rank
Stanford	Chris Owusu	19	668	35.2	3	94	6
Oregon	Kenjon Barner	11	389	35.4	1	100	5

What does all this mean Verne?

The punt returners are pretty equal and don't average much.  However, depending on the scoring, kickoff returns could play a significant part.  Each team will kickoff at least once and with the high scoring that the Ducks produce, the chances of Owusu returning a big one is much higher.

Going on my earlier prediction of 52-21 Oregon is going to be a tad bit off.  I am really thinking that it will be along the lines of 48-21.  This means that Stanford will have nine shots at running one back for a TD.  If you look at Owusu's number of TD's per try, he is averaging 1 TD to just over 6 tries.  Statistically, that would mean that if Oregon scores 6 TD's and two FG's, that is a total of nine tries (6 on the TD's, two on FG's and an initial half kickoff).  Oregon on the other hand would get four tries.

I am expecting that Owusu will run one back and that the Cards will score two other TD's with their offense.  I was asked why I thought Stanford would score more points on Oregon than USC and my answer is this;  Oregon played USC at Autzen and I was not impressed with the offense that USC displayed.  On the other hand, I think the Stanford offense is more potent, if for no other reason than Oregon won't be at Autzen.

Other notes:

Three TD's for the Cards seems reasonable considering they have Gerhart and are putting up 230 yards passing.  I would love to be wrong and I was wrong on last week's USC score by one point, however I was way wrong on what Oregon was able to produce.

I am not making that mistake this week.  Thusly, I am sticking with a my educated guesstimate of 48-21.  In the P10, Oregon is beating it's opponents by an average of 30 points, largely due to the blowouts with Cal and WSU.  I am thinking that another 27 point difference is not stretching it too much considering the Cards porous defense.

Stanford is allowing an average of over 360 yards for their opponent's offense, 126 rushing alone.  I am afraid that with Masoli and James running the ball, they could put up 360 just in rushing.  I would not be surprised if the Oregon offense puts up over 500 yards total.

Considering the Stanford offense, I am not yet convinced that Luck is very good at the scramble when compared to the speed of Oregon's D.  I am not saying that Luck can't run, I'm not sure he can out run the Ducks speedy and stout D.  Still I think he'll manage to put up a couple of TD's, one rushing and the other a long ball that get's by someone.  The other TD, I've already give to Owusu.

This looks like it's going to be a fun game to watch and I think Stanford will be more pesky than what a lot of people expect.

So there you have it, Oregon 48, Stanford 21.

Oregon v Stanford - In The Trenches

Today, I'm going to look at the RB's, the Lines, and the LB's because they all factor into the run game, which both Stanford and Oregon feature as well as the pass game.  To begin, we'll look at when Stanford is on offense.

	LT	LG	C	RG	RT	TE
Stanford	Jonathan Martin	Andrew Phillips	Chase Beeler	David DeCastro	Chris Marinelli	Jim Dray
	6-6,291,RFr	6-5,299,Jr	6-3,285,Jr	6-5,310,RFr	6-7,300,Sr	6-5,255,Sr
	DE	DT	DT	DE
Oregon	Will Tukuafu	Brandon Bair	Blake Ferras	Kenny Rowe
	6-4,262,Sr	6-7,268,Jr	6-6,290,Sr	6-3,232,Jr
	SAM	MIKE	WILL
	Eddie Pleasant	Casey Matthews	Spencer Paysinger
	5-11,207,So	6-2,235,Jr	6-3,226,Jr

From a size standpoint, it would appear that Oregon's front four matches up very well with Stanford's front five plus one.  The key match up appears to be Chris Marinelli and Kenny Rowe.  While Marinelli out sizes Rowe, there is a vast speed difference that may give the advantage to Rowe.  However, as a fifth year senior, there is an experience depth there that Rowe will have difficulties with.  Additionally, Marinelli is on everyone's preseason list.

When you take into consideration that Oregon's LB's like to fall back into pass protection, holes will open up for the run game, but with Luck only completing 58 percent of his passes, the run game may have to be a big part of the offense if Stanford is going to be successful.  Luck only has three picks on the season, but then he hasn't faced a pass efficiency defense even remotely as good as Oregon's who is ranked 4th in the country.

Interestingly, Oregon's total D is ranked 20th in the country and Stanford's O is also ranked 20th in the country.

This match up should prove to be very entertaining and I can not give an advantage here for the run game, however, I think Oregon has a slight advantage in the passing game if only because the Ducks have 11 picks and 24 sacks on the season.

Now let's look at when Oregon has the ball.

	LT	LG	C	RG	RT	TE
Oregon	Bo Thran	Carson York	Jordan Holmes	Mark Asper	CE Kaiser	Ed Dickson
	6-5,293,Jr	6-5,285,RFr	6-5,285,Jr	6-7,323,So	6-4,290,Jr	6-5,243,Sr
	DE	DT	NT	DE
Stanford	Thomas Keiser	Sione Fua	Ekom Udofia	Chase Thomas
	6-5,257,So	6-2,305,Jr	6-2,315,Sr	6-4,243,RFr
	SAM	MIKE	WILL
	Will Powers	Clinton Snyder	Shayne Skov
	6-4,240,Sr	6-4,240,Sr	6-3,237,Fr

The key match up here will be Thomas Keiser (who is tied with Kenny Rowe with 7 sacks) and where he chooses to line up at.  On the other hand, Masoli is such a mobile QB that not once did USC even really threaten to sack him.  Stanford only has three picks on the year and that could mean that Masoli will have his way with the Stanford LB's.  Part of the reason Masoli doesn't have as many yards as other QB's is because the vast majority of his passes are short to mid-range.  Masoli is very good at picking apart opponents defense in order to nickle and dime them to death.

While Stanford's size matches up very well with Oregon's front five plus one, usually when you go with the jumbos, you lose the speed.  In the Ducks offense, speed kills.

So what does all this nimble pimble mean Verne?

When Stanford has the offense, I would expect that Gerhart will be at the very least 50 percent of the entire offense, otherwise, I would suspect that Luck get's picked at least twice.  Stanford only has 1837 yards passing to their opponents 1919, whereas Oregon only has allowed 1435 for the year.  However, Stanford has a great advantage on their opponents in that they've rushed for 1645 yards and their opponents for only 1011.  Oregon on the other hand has rushed for 1866 yards and their opponents only for 972.

The run game may be the deciding factor in this game and with Masoli being the type of QB that he is, Stanford may be in for a long day of it.

The variable I have not discussed is special teams and I will leave that for tomorrow.

Today, I am picking Oregon 52 Stanford 21.  While in light of the above this may seem out of whack, I am thinking that the Stanford D will not be able to hang with the Oregon O.

Time to start looking at Oregon vs Stanford

Time to start looking at Oregon at Stanford and like Chip Kelly says, one game at a time.  When asked whether the USC game was the biggest victory in Kelly's career, he gave the classic Kelly answer that we've all come to know and love.

"It was this week".

That's Chip Kelly's mantra, one week at a time and the rest will take care of it's self.  Control what you can control and don't worry about the rest because you just waste energy.

Now, being the number cruncher kind of guy that I am, lets look at how the Ducks stack up against the Cardinals statistically:

	Ducks	Stanford	Ducks	Stanford
Rushing Offense	8	16	1	0
Passing Offense	105	49	0	1
Total Offense	45	20	0	1
Scoring Offense	9	24	1	0
Rushing Defense	45	51	1	0
Pass Efficiency Defense	4	80	1	0
Total Defense	20	67	1	0
Scoring Defense	19	44	1	0
Net Punting	65	43	0	1
Punt Returns	37	57	1	0
Kickoff Returns	3	1	0	1
Turnover Margin	30	83	1	0
Pass Defense	25	89	1	0
Passing Efficiency	67	19	0	1
Sacks	11	55	1	0
Tackles For Loss	32	108	1	0
Sacks Allowed	38	5	0	1
			11	6

Normally I would say that is should be a close game, just by the numbers.  However, these numbers are a little more telling than usual.  Statistically, last week USC was better, at least they were last week.  We kind of have to jump around a little to get the proper perspective.

Starting with the Rushing offense, Gerhart for Stanford is the number one running back in the league, however as a team, Oregon is out rushing Stanford by a margin of about 25 yards per game (233.25 UO/205.63/Stanford).  If we refine that to just P10 games, then the margin is more, Oregon averages 285 per game and Stanford averages 219.83 per game.  Now is we look at the run defense, things get a little more interesting. 

Oregon averages 121.5 on run D, while Stanford averages 126.38 on run D.  If we look just at the P10 games again, Oregon gives up an average of 103.8 per game and Stanford gives up an average of 122.67 yards per game.  Honestly that doesn't too bad for the Stanford D - But remember USC had the number 5 rushing D in the country - at lease until last week.

Advantage is Oregon's in the Rushing offense and defense.

Now, let's look at the passing offense and defense.  Currently the Ducks averages 165.5 per game passing while Stanford averages 229.63 per game.  Again, if we just look at P10 games, the numbers change to Oregon averaging 223.4 per game and Stanford is averaging 231.67 per game. 

On the other side, the Ducks are averaging and here we have a couple of numbers to look at.  First there is the yardage, Oregon is giving up an average of 179.28 and Stanford is giving up an average of 239.88.  Additionally, Oregon's pass efficiency D is at 94.88 and Stanford's is 131.76. 

Now if we just look at the P10 games, Oregon is giving up 156.4 yards per game and Stanford is giving up 251.33 yards per game.  That is very nearly a hundred P10 yards per game difference!

Advantage here is kind of a toss up.

Now lets look at scoring offense and defense.  Oregon is averaging 35.63 points per game and Stanford is averaging 31.88.  Not a lot of difference there.  Now, if we just look at the P10 games, Oregon is averaging 41.6 points per game and Stanford is averaging, 29.5 points per game, kind of a big difference here.


If we look at the other side of the ball, Oregon gives up an average of 17.13 points per game and Stanford is giving up 22.38 points per game.  If we again just look at the P10 games, Oregon is giving up 11.6 points per game and Stanford is giving up 23 points per game.

In the points game, Oregon has the distinct advantage.

The other defensive stats we need to look at are the sacks, the TFL's, turnover margin, and the sacks allowed.  In three of four of those categories, Oregon is far and away the better team.  The fourth, sacks allowed could be misconstrued as the Ducks use the running QB.

Advantage is clearly Oregon's.

Finally we look at the Special Teams.  This is an area that requires great speculation as one never knows where this going to go.  However, It pits two of the better teams in the nation in kickoff returns.  This could really be an exciting game just for the kick offs.  Otherwise Oregon has the better punt returns but Stanford seems to have better net punting.

I would have to give a slight advantage here to Stanford.

If you have been following me, I tend to make a prediction on Mondays and then adjust as we explore deeper into the two teams.  So today, I am expecting to see something along the lines of and again this will probably be adjusted:


Oregon 48
Stanford 24


Stanford fans who have not had the benefit of reading my wonderful blogs might think I am total dismissing them, but it's not true.  As we move about through the week, I will very likely move those numbers up and down as personnel are looked at.

Carroll refuses to shake hands with Chip Kelly.

To the vastness of pundits that predicted USC would destroy Oregon, I have two words for you:

SCOREBOARD BABY!!

By now, you've already read the stats ad nauseum so there is really no point in going over them in detail again.  One of the things I want to discuss is the crowd.

Now, Barkley says that the crowd didn't affect him and in the first half, I might have to agree with him.  But this game is a tale of two halves.  In the first half, as long as USC was in it, Barkley seemed to be okay, but in the second half as Oregon started to get further and further ahead, Barkley seemed to be falling apart...

Barkley ended the game with 21-38 passing and a garbage int.   That is about 55% of his passes completed with 187 yards.  Conversely, Masoli 19-31-0 or about 61% and 222 Yards.  That equates to 8.9 yards per completion for Barkley and 11.7 yards per completion for Masoli.  The other stat that is very telling per the crowd is this:

USC had 6 missed starts.

I initially expected something along the lines of 28-19 for a final score.  Not in my wildest senior moments did I expect that the 28-19 would turn out to be the combined score just for Oregon.

So, in the final analysis of the crowd mostly in black, regardless of what Barkley says, the crowd affected him and his OL.

Now on to something that just torques me to no end.  

If Chip Kelly had just sauntered out to midfield to shake hands with Pete Carroll, there would have be no Pete Carroll (ala 2007 with Mike Belotti) to shake hands with.

Instead, Chip Kelly had to run, (mind you for the elegantly portly CK, that might have been a heath risk, I know I'm elegantly portly too), run to catch Carroll before he went into the tunnel and even then it appeared to this blogger that Carroll was trying to brush off Kelly.  It looked like it required Kelly to grab a hold of Carroll in order to whisper something in to Carroll's ear.

I dont' know if it's because this was the fourth consecutive loss in the great State of Oregon for the Trojans, or if Carroll just has a hard time with not winning.  No one likes to lose, but it is a sign of a true champion to be humble in victory and gracious in defeat.  Carroll has always seemed to be gloating in victory and sorely in defeat  - at least where Oregon is concerned.

This has been a sore spot for Oregon fans since at least 2007 and bless Chip Kelly, he was more of a man, forcing himself on Pete Carroll, if for no other reason than to try and save Carroll's rep with the Oregon fans.  I mean, even if Carroll thought that Chip Kelly was running up the score (remember last year USC won 44-10 - a 34 point margin and with just under 2 minutes left in the game, Mustain threw a 59 yard TD pass to Ausberry - effectively running up the score), that didn't rise to the level of being crass.

But what Chip Kelly did was the very definition of what a champion should be doing.  That is the character that Chip Kelly has imputed upon his players, and while a stray gets away once in a while, generally the rest of the pack seems to echo that very definition of what a Kelly champion should be.

Apparently I am not the only one to notice this after I did a Google search and many other seems to have seen the same thing, so I'm not having a dementia moment.

Finally, if a coach epitomizes the character of the team, then the following must be true:

Kelly = Oregon Ducks = Class.
Carroll = USC = Classless.

I am sorry for the USC fans, I think Rome is . . .err. . . Troy is burning.