Saturday, August 17, 2013

The Oregon Ducks, America's favorite team (after their own team)

Last season in 2012 I was living with a little over 50 American Veterans recuperating. At the beginning of the football season, the college to NFL fan base in that little group was about 10 NFL fans to one college fan.

By the end of the season, the ratio was just about even between the NFL and college.

By hook or crook, I got that group to watch college football, more specifically, the brand of football that the Oregon Ducks play. People became interested in this new style of football – at least new to them. This brand of football was exciting, fast paced, successful, and probably the most telling adjective, fun.

“What is this thing you call football?” I remember one asking me. It wasn't the drudgery of a running back running between the tackles again and again and again. It wasn't the semi-fast wishbone or your typical I or T formations. This wasn't even the more enjoyable West Coast Offense. No, this was a new twist on something that wasn't new at all – the spread offense. Oregon had put its own twists and turns into the spread to make it seem as though it was something entirely new.

Typical I formation Typical T formation

Typical Wishbone Typical Spread

It was the 'Oregon Offense', it was the 'blur offense'.

Towards the middle of the season, purist NFL guys were coming to me and saying they were seeing some of the Ducks plays being utilized in the NFL. Teams like the Seahawks, the 49ers, the Steelers and maybe the mostly by the Patriots were taking a page from the Ducks playbook and they were being successful doing it. I could begin to see a shift in the mindsets of these knowledgeable football fans.

Then there were those flashy uniforms that other colleges were starting to sport. There were the wild helmets that fans old and new were coming to like. There was this flash, this blink and it's gone, this go-get-your-coffee-and-you-miss-it feeling to what the Ducks were bringing to the football world. These avid football fans were being turned to the offense-side and away from the defense-side.

By the time the Fiesta Bowl came around, it was the most anticipated bowl in our little group. When De'Anthony Thomas ran back that kick off, the place was in an uproar. Somewhere I heard someone say, “Now this is football”.

Yeah, it is football. It is Oregon's brand of football. It's the type of football that tOSU fans, 'Bama, Seahawks, 49ers and Patriot fans are telling me is their favorite type of game and that the Ducks are their second favorite team in the country.


Welcome to football – Oregon style – a brand that is changing the way the game is being played at both the lower levels and at the highest level of football. Welcome to the twenty first century style of football.

Monday, August 12, 2013

LeGarrette Blount - Lost and Found

LeGarrette Blount, the football player that everybody seemed to loved to hate and hated to love. A big bruising back (look at his play against GB below):




who has surprising agility, see him here against the Cardinals:




and against the Falcons:



and finally against the Seahawks:


The first three years of his NFL career looked like this:



Career Stats
Season
Team Games Rushing Receiving Fumbles
G GS Att Yds Avg Lng TD Rec Yds Avg Long TD FUM Lost
2012 TB 13 0 41 151 3.7 35 2 1 2 2 2 0 -- --
2011 TB 14 14 184 781 4.2 54T 5 15 148 9.9 35 0 5 3
2010 TB 13 7 201 1007 5 53 6 5 14 2.8 7 0 4 3


His number dwindled each year, but the talent remained the same.  Had LeGarrette remained in TB, he might have been lost to us forever.  Enter the Patriots and a breath of new life for LeGarrette.

The other night, LeGarrette had over a hundred yards, half coming on this play:


Anyone who watched LeGarrette run at Oregon, knew then he was a big back that was quite comfortable running over people.  At the 'pro' level, the nay-sayers were saying that he wouldn't last, that nobody wanted him, and that his style of running would be 'taught out of him'.  His rushing performance against his old college coach, should be more than enough to answer questions about what he can and can not do.

LeGarrette is uniquely situated at New England to show the football world what Bill Belichick has always known and when the trade came to fruition, Belichick was quoted as saying:
"It's not like he hasn't performed well in this league before. We traded for a player that we thought was a good player. It's no shock he can run the ball. We all know that he did a nice job (Friday) night."
Some in the main stream media has argued that LeGarrette numbers have a down side story, that half his yards came on one run.  

Okay, let's go with that.  


His long run was 51 yards of his total 101 on 11 tries.  That would leave 50 yards on ten tries or an average of 5.0 yards a touch.  That's top shelf any day of the week and to use the cliche`, twice on Sunday.  Those kind of numbers keep you on the team and in the game.


LeGarrette is on track to be revitalized and not surprising to either Belichick or Ducks fans, he could have a monster year.



Thursday, August 8, 2013

New dictionary definitions

I have issues about not being able to stop watching DAT's kickoff run back to start the 2013 Fiesta Bowl in Glendale.  It is one of the reasons, the Ducks are the number one "fun" team in college football.

So, some new dictionary definitions for your enjoyment.

How do you spell speed?


 How you spell stunned.
How you spell "shocked in 12 seconds".

Just a few gems from the 2013 Fiesta Bowl courtesy of ESPN.

and finally,


Is the game over yet?

This is not so much dissing KSU, as it is getting way too excited for the new year, the new expectations, the new chance at 13-0 and finally, bringing the crystal ball home.

KSU was a great team and if we and they had taken care of business, this would have been the NCG, but alas, it's for runner up in the polls.   Still in all KSU played a great game, they just didn't have an answer for when the Ducks unleashed their buzz saw.  Nobody really did, save Stanford and I still think that was a fluke of a game and not a catch in the end zone before going out.

Are you ready for some football?

I know, I know it's now a cliche`, but oh heck, it's still fun.

Wednesday, August 7, 2013

Next up, I will compare and contrast between the Oregon recruits and the best of the SEC: Alabama, LSU, Georgia, Florida and South Carolina.

Now to the Manziel - Mariota Matchup

There has been a lot of talk during last season and since then, about how close and perhaps how apart Johnny Manziel and Marcus Mariota are in terms of their ability to help their team and being the "team general". While we all know that "Johnny Football" won the Heisman last year, a lot of fans argue that Mariota was short changed because of only playing a single half in over half of his games. Adding fuel to the fire is Coach Helf's comment that they would score often and all game long. Hmm- makes you wonder if he won't be pulling Mariota in the second half again in favor of giving the back ups more real game time scenario reps.

So - let's take a look and see what we can draw from and how they would compare if Mariota had played the entire game in all 13 games. Those games where he only played a half I will show how his number doubled from the first half.

Using the matrix of stats offered by the NCAA on each team page, lets see how the two teams ranked nationally in each category:



Oregon
Texas A&M
Nat'l Rank
Nat'l Rank
Rushing Offense 3
11
Passing Offense 72
14
Total Offense 5
3
Scoring Offense 2
4
Rushing Defense 44
35
Pass Efficiency Defense 15
39
Total Defense 44
57
Scoring Defense 25
26
Turnover Margin 1
86
Pass Defense 56
86
Passing Efficiency 7
20
Sacks 50
36
Tackles For Loss 39
61
Sacks Allowed 35
53
Average 28.43
37.93



Oregon averaged national ranks by over 133 percent over Texas A&M. Of course national ranks are also dependent on the national ranks of their opponents. For example, if Oregon, played opponents that averaged in the bottom 10 percent of the NCAA, then the numbers could be inflated by that imbalance of team quality. On the other hand, if Oregon played teams in the top 25-10 percent, their numbers would be deflated because of the quality of the competition.
So, that begs the question, how did the two teams schedule effect affected each team? Let's take a look, first at the average rank for both offense and defense, minus special teams.



Oregon Texas A&M
Offense 56.62 59.05
Defense 56.71 44.66
Overall 56.67 53.97

Immediately, you notice that Texas A&M played much better defenses than Oregon, at least according to the stats. However, as I mentioned above, stats can be misleading depending on the quality of the opponents opponents. So, let's look at how the opponents fared in each category:



Oregon Texas A&M
Rushing O 60.31 63.77
Passing O 50.85 62.69
Total O 54.69 54.46
Scoring O 50.85 41.54
Rushing D 64.38 49.77
Pass Eff D 56.23 49.85
Total D 62.00 49.15
Scoring D 61.08 48.77
Turnover Margin 51.92 60.23
Pass D 66.69 55.85
Pass Eff 53.46 48.31
Sacks 47.23 54.31
TFL's 44.15 58.77
Sacks Allowed 69.54 58.17
Total 56.67 53.97



To fully understand the opponents rankings, we would have to look at the opponents – opponents rankings and I have not done that yet, it would take a long, long time.+

Everything clear as mud yet?

Now to the individual rankings:

Marcus Mariota












Games
Played
Rushing Passing Total
Offense
Pts
No. Gain Loss Net TDs Att Comp Int Yards TD Plays Yds
Totals 13 106 898 146 752 5 336 230 6 2677 32 442 3429 36
Diff 0 -95 -673 -15 -658 -16 -98 -65 -3 -1029 6 -193 -1687 -90















Johnny Manziel












Games
Played
Rushing Passing Total
Offense
Pts
No. Gain Loss Net TDs Att Comp Int Yards TD Plays Yds
Totals 13 201 1571 161 1410 21 434 295 9 3706 26 635 5116 126
Diff 0 95 673 15 658 16 98 65 3 1029 -6 193 1687 90

As something of a proviso, Mariota had 12 points in receptions that Manziel didn't have.

If we double Mariota's numbers for those games he didn't complete, then we get:

Marcus Mariota












Games
Played
Rushing Passing Total
Offense
Pts
Rushes Gain Loss Net TDs Att Comp Int Yards TD Plays Yds
Totals 13 177 1502 245 1257 9 588 407 11 4677 57 765 5934 66
Diff 0 -24 -69 84 -153 -12 154 112 2 971 31 130 818 -60















Johnny Manziel












Games
Played
Rushing Passing Total
Offense
Pts
Rushes Gain Loss Net TDs Att Comp Int Yards TD Plays Yds
Totals 13 201 1571 161 1410 21 434 295 9 3706 26 635 5116 126
Diff 0 24 69 -84 153 12 -154 -112 -2 -971 -31 -130 -818 60


In the above scenario, Mariota had, the best numbers. By these new numbers, Mariota would have had an amazing year for a QB. Mariota would have broken Akili Smith's single season passing record. Perhaps he will have a complete year, given what Coach Helf said about scoring, and show everyone what Ducks fans already know, that Mariota is by and far away the best QB in the nation.


Now for a historical perspective among Oregon QB's and using just the raw numbers:


Number Player Year
Mariota Mariota Adj*
Attps: 426 Graziani 1995
336 588
Comp's: 231 Musgrave 1989
230 407
Yards: 3763 Smith 1998
2677 4677
TD's: 33 Thomas 2011
32 57
Pass Eff 167.3 Smith 1998
163.23 287.28
YPC 17.5 Smith 1998
11.64 20.49
*Mariota's numbers if he'd completed all games


This would be exciting for any Ducks fan. However, as has been happening in my little town in Arizona (even with the AZ team fans) the Ducks have become the team to watch, especially if you just want a fun football game and this phenomenon has been happening nationwide.

However, and maybe more important in that fuzzy “field general” statistic that isn't really counted by the bean counters is the fact that Marcus has said many a time that he would rather have the W then to have the stats. That is, in my opinion, the very definition of a “field general” giving credit and taking the blame – in other words, “the team is more important than I am” mentality.

For the soft spoken, unfazeable sophomore, this could be a monstrous year in terms of both the W column and his own stats.


Can I dream now? Is it possible that Oregon will, this year, produce it's first Heisman trophy winner? We can only wait and see and for me, that's the hard part.